keep in mind that you will have many early exits and disapointing finishes but also more chances at the big money which will in turn make you more profitable in the long run.
gl
matty
Statistics: Posted by cholo loco — Mon Mar 28, 2005 9:40 pm
]]>
I thought back to a post I read on 2+2 about the natural progression of card players. Everyone starts off with no idea what they're doing, then they study up and read a few books and they start their "tight" ABC phase. Eventually thru more study or observation, they realize they're leaving a lot of profit behind and start to incorporate more medium strength hands into their game and working on post flop play. They have even more success and get entirely too loose, playing almost everything and trying to outplay everyone on every hand. The good players reign themselves back in, learn from their mistakes, and get a far greater understanding of how and why they went wrong, and can go back to playing a slightly loose aggressive style and maximizing profit. The point, is that when I won the first tournament, I was just on the verge of hitting that reckless, crazy loose style that would soon cause me a ton of trouble. What I had going for me in that tournment was a unbridled aggression and no fear. I was a betting machine, and I had some luck with me that day.
I think the key going forward is to regain some of that looseness. I've always had the aggression, not a problem. So, the natural question becomes exactly how loose do we become. What sorts of hands do we play, from what position and for how much? Saying "play looser" is too simple and leaves too much unanswered. Another issue is that playing too loose early and/or missing some of your draws can quickly put you in chip trouble. I guess that's the risk we'll run to advance further, more early bust outs and hopefully more deep finishes.
Anyway, as I spent the weekend pondering the results of this thread, I decided to jump into a $22 Multi Saturday afternoon. I told myself to be aggressive and put my sole focus on getting chips at every oppurtunity, and if I got out on a coin flip or bad play, so be it, but damn it I'm going for it! Anyway, I finished 113th. I had 18500 chips when I went out and made a terrible play against a big stack. But here's some key hands that got me there :
First hand of the tournament I got AK UTG and made it 70 to go (Blinds were 10-15, and everyone starts with 1000). I got one caller in MP. The flop was all low's and I bet the pot, forcing a fold. I played thru a few more rounds and didn't get much. I limped with a few pocket pairs but never hit.
The next key hand occured at the same blind level. I was on the button with QJs and raised two limpers. I made it 100 to go. The SB and one limper called. The flop was J-10-5. They both checked, I bet the pot, the SB check-raised all in and the limper folded. I had the SB covered by around 1000 to 700. I called and his A-10 got no help. I was up to 1700.
Blinds went up two levels to 25/50 when a key hand hit before break. I was down to about 1400. UTG (slightly less than me) raised to 100 and a short stack of about 550 went all in. I had AQs and went all in also. UTG called. UTG had Jacks and the short stack had Kings. It seemed my new aggressive strategy was going to ruin me, until the flop was A-Q-X and I knocked out two players and got up to almost 3000 at the first break. Foreshadowing note, this would be my most successful endeavor against Kings
We came back from break and hit immediate disaster. Blinds are now 50/100 and I'm on the button with A-10. It folds to a short stack in the cut-off who goes all in for 1090. Since, we know from my previous post this is the time when the shortstacks make desperate moves with any pairs, any aces, and any two paints, I figured I was at worst 40-60, and with my stack, would take the coinflip to get up over 4K nice and early. Sadly the short stack had aces and I lost 1/3 of my chips.
Get back that 1000, but 800 more a few hands later with Kings versus AK that doesn't hit. Up to about 3800 when the key hand hits. The blinds have advanced to 75-150. UTG limps, MP bets the minimum and I am in the BB with 4-5s. Normally I'd fold but I decide that's a good price, and my implied odds were huge, as the MP player was the table leader with over 5000 chips. UTG called also and we got a 9-3-3 flop with two of my suit. I checked with the intention of check-raising, but UTG and MP both checked also. The turn was the 2 of my suit, thus giving me the flush and an open ended straight flush draw for improvement. I led out for 1100. UTG folded and MP just called. The turn was an offsuit queen. I bet 1400 and he called quickly. He had AQ with the Queen of my suit. This hand made me the table big stack and put me over 6000, which was well above average.
At this point I started to steal blinds mercillessly, and was raising pretty much any playable hand if folded to. I was also following up with flop bets the few times I was called. I only got played back at one time, and I had KQs, called, and knocked a guy out with A-9.
I had my stack up to about 8500 when I ran into aces again and lost 2000. I quickly gained them back however and kept up the pace. Here I should mention, I drew a good draw for this tournament. I hate drawing table 115 and then moving like 12 times. In this tourney, I drew table 3. Unfortunately, around this time, Party decided to only move large stacks to my table. Every time we knocked somebody out, a bigger stack came. With about 280 people left (this tourney paid out to 180) I hit a terrible run of cards and lost about 2000 in blinds. It wasn't helping that the big stacks were raising and re-raising virtually every pot, and I quickly fell to 6th in chips at the table. With 200 left I finally got three hands in succession and stole with each of them, getting me back up to around 7000. We hit the money and the players kept dropping out.
Then I got a great run of cards. I was stealing pots left and right. The blinds hit 500/1000 and I didn't slow down at all. With 140 left I had about 12K in chips and got J's in the SB. UTG limps, as did three others, including the crazy loose chip leader who was limping and calling all in's with all kinds of crap, and he kept hitting. I reasoned I had 12K in chips, there was 4500 in the pot and my only play was all in. I moved in and it folded around to the crazy loose big stack who took what felt like hours, before finally folding. I was up to almost 18K. I stole blinds where I could and was up to a little over 18K when the disaster hit.
I'm in fourth in chips at the table and I get A-10s UTG. I make it 2500 to go. It folds to a smallish stack of 7500 who thinks forever, and finally just calls. It folds around to a big stack and he goes all in for 37K, folding off everyone back to me. This wasn't the same crazy, loose big stack from before. This guy was playing a little more solidly, raising and re-raising a lot, but he only showed down good hands. Jacks once and AK once, both times winning. His all in looked suspicious to me. I walked around for a while, I pondered out loud, my protege was watching and she said "I don't like this I think you should fold". I pondered more, and finally I decided that I feel lucky, I think he's got 8's and doesn't want a call, and I decided to gamble. The medium stack called quickly also and I immediately realized that I'm an idiot. The short stack had AQo and the big stack had K's. I flopped a 4 flush, but got no further help and the big stack knocked us both out. 113th place and like $17 in profit.
The lesson, as always, is that I'm an idiot. Also, that you can't win a tournament in one hand, but you can lose it. It was a terrible play and I got a little blinded by the size of the pot, and what I deemed a great chance to double up and get to 40K, which I figured would allow me to coast to the final table. I'm also kind of pissed at the short stack, because if he had played his hand the way he should have, which was to move in, then I could have safely folded to the big stacks all in, but I digress. The bad play still lies mostly on me. The positive is that playing looser helped me get further than I've been in a long time, so we'll give it another go in the next few days and see how it turns out.
Drade
Statistics: Posted by Drade — Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:32 pm
]]>
I particularly like your analysis of the stages of the tourmanent. I have played the party $5 and $1 tournament a few dozen times- my best cash was 7th, and I feel I have to make a lot of improvements to win, as well as get lucky on more than a few occasions.
Here is my view on the early stage
Stage 1- at the $5 MTT, with up to 2000 entrants, you lose half the field in the first hour, as you say. My strategy in the past has been to play very tight, as it seems yours is. However, I do think their is a lot of merit in the point Choco makes. The problem with the tight early strategy is you inevitably end up short stacked. When you can get in cheap, I think you need to take a chance with drawing hands, like suited connectors and small pairs, even if you miight have to call a small raise to get there. The implied odds at this stage (because so many people think- its only 5 bucks i will double up or quit) are so large that they justifiy a call in many cases, I think. I also wonder if their might be merit at this stage in pushing all in with your big hands, in the hope you will get called. I have moved in with AA before in these in the first round and been called by Ax. You are essentially risking the profit you would make on a small pot on a bigger gamble for a bigger pot.
Statistics: Posted by Telemachus — Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:38 am
]]>
as to often being short on chips, that is something every single player in these tournys faces. i put a premium on chip accumulation right out of the gate. its important to stay ahead of the field when even having an average chip count leaves you with little room to maneuvar.
i like to play a looser style than you recomend out of the gate. this is probabllly easy to sometimes confuse with the party crazies that you allude to. i really believe in these tournaments there is some merit to this strategy as long as you play well post flop. this is the very different then my regular tournament strategy but these huge fields are a beast of there own. im trying to make final tables and compete for the big money and a tight aggressive approach all the way through just wont get you there in 1000 player fields.
i dont mean to suggest keeping your foot on the accelerator all the way through. i like the way you break the tourny into different stages and think you did a good job with them. at certain stages i skrew down fairly tight and at other key moments loosen up even more with my preflop raising,especially at bubble time and right before the final table. dont just try to get there but try to get there with enough chips to be competitive.
once you start getting towards the money dont be afraid to get broke. im not a fan of passing up many small edges in tournys. paul phillips post on this at 2+2 changed my tourn ament style for the better and you should check those out if you get a chance. once you make the final table there will be times when you want to play the move up the ladder game and try to secure a nice payday. until then it is rarely worth it unless you have such a short stack that doubling up dosent matter much and you are close enough to fold your way into the money (which without antees can happen with how the blinds fall) moving up from 100th all the way to 11th usually is not very much money relative to the massive payoffs that are possible for the top spots.
i think you are wrong about these tournys being -ev. the variance is such that it is hard to tell and a few good finishes can skew your results but with as much dead money is in these things i think significant +ev is possible. i do however think there are few endeavors that are more frustrating as playing these huge field tournys. it is so hard to make a final table that doing so and then getting bad beated out is truelly soul crushing devestation.
also stars has a much better structure in these things and i now play them almost exclusively for tournys except for some of the 25k guranteed at empire because they often dont reach the max so there is some free money in there.
i apoligize for one of the trully most rambling posts ever but there is so many points i wanted to touch on. its a shame to follow up a well written and organized long post with a long, poorly written, unorganized post, but alas, ive written too much to junk it and i dont have the time to fix it.
gl
matty
Statistics: Posted by cholo loco — Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:44 am
]]>
]]>
]]>
The way I see it, there's 3 or 4 stages to these tournaments, all requiring different playing styles, and yet no matter how well I play, i continually struggle to accumulate any significant amount of chips without knocking myself out. Any advice would be welcomed.
Stage 1 - Basically the first hour, or to the first break. These tournaments tend to lose half the field by this time. It's usually not a problem getting to the break, unless I take a really bad beat. The problem is getting to the break with any amount of chips. It's not uncommon for me to hit the break having only played one or two hands out of the blinds, and often I have below 1000 chips when we resume play. When play resumes, the blinds are at 50/100, which puts me in pretty bad shape if I've only got 850 chips left. Basically I'm usually forced to move in during my first two orbits at the table, and certainly before the next blind increase.
My strategy during stage one is just to play solid solid poker, don't take coinflips, and don't lose an unnecessary amount of chips. I basically stick to a solid starting hand requirement, pairs 9's and ups, small & medium pairs in position for a limp or small raise, AK, AQ, AJ & A10s, and KQs. I'll take some flops in late position with suited connectors too if the price is right. I stand by the adage that you can't win the tournament by winning one big pot early, but you can certainly lose it. However, with the blind situation after break, it's really almost mandatory to double up at least once in stage one. The additional problem is the "Party Poker Crazies" who love to bluff, chase flushes, chase straights, and such. The majority knock themselves out, but there are casualties to the decent player. Surviving to break feels like an accomplishment, but staring up at half the field as a shortstack afterwards quickly knocks you back to reality.
Stage 2 - Is basically the next hour or so, until the blinds reach 150/300. For me, this is where the tournament tends to really start. In this stage is where I usually go out, and this stage usually thins the field down to about 400 players. Traditionally, at this point, most tables consist of one or two healthy stacks <2500, 3 or 4 decent stacks around 1800 and above, and the rest are short-stack-ish and looking to double up. The players continue to drop like flies in this round, as short stacks everywhere are pushing trying to double up. I'm almost always included in this bunch. This is the first stage where blind stealing pops its head up, but it's not quite advisable yet, as there are so many short stacks who will move in with any pair and any ace that you can quickly coinflip yourself from a healthy stack to out if you're stealing too much.
My hand requirements stay pretty much the same. I also believe in tournaments that it's not worth blinding/anteing yourself down so low that doubling up doesn't help you, like getting down to 500 chips at 200/400 blinds, and if you double up, you're still in a world of hurt and going to have to do it several more times to stay afloat. So, at about 5 times the BB I'm really hunting for any playable hand to move in. Suited connectors down to about 89 look good, as do any pairs, any ace, and any two face cards, as well as the good hands mentioned earlier. Again, the stacks at this point are the size that most PF raises are solid hands and re-stealing won't ever work, so I try to be the first one in the pot and utilize the gap concept where possible. Calling a PF raise with A-6 is almost always a recipe for disaster, no matter how short you are. Again, this is where I go out most often. I'm usually sitting by idly, folding all the junk, then I move in on a PF raiser with AQ and he has 9's and I lose. Or I move in with A-9 and get called by A-J.
Assuming I come into this level with more than 2000 chips, I try to apply smart pressure to the short stacks. I don't outright steal at this level and I try to protect my chips and stay solid, just an extension of level 1, but looking for oppurtunities to pick off a short stack making a move with a suspect hand. This also often bites me in the ass, such as when I call a short stacks all in with A-Js and then a player behind me moves in, or when I call a short stack players all in with 9's and he's got J's. No way to avoid these situations, right? This level is so tough because rarely do you have enough chips to just coast and yet one mistake cripples you and basically moves you to all in or fold mode.
Stage 3 - We'll call this bubble time. The blinds in these tourneys are tough, I think they go up every 15 minutes or so. In this stage, the blinds will probably reach 600/1200 by the time you hit the money. Even a stack of 9 or 10K isn't enough to coast, you'll make the money, but be in serious trouble right after money time. The majority of tables consist of one or two large stacks <10K, 3 or 4 medium stacks between 3 and 5K, a few medium short stacks ~2K, and a few short stacks, less than 1500. This stage is steal city. Most hands are one raise and done. Or a raise, re-raise done. If a flop is taken, it's usually taken down by the first bet put into the pot. It's easy to identify the habitual stealers, they're the ones slowly moving their stacks up, before getting caught and being unable to fold K-10 to pocket aces and getting knocked out. Re-steals are almost always monsters. Very rarely do I get to this level with any more than 3 or 4K chips, and when I do, I'm quickly blinded down to nothing. The problem at this level is blinds in relation to stack sizes. When you've only got 3000 chips, a standard raise is often to 1000 or more, which is a signifcant amount of your chips. Playing hands and getting action becomes an issue. A hand like 10's becomes a real burden. The problem is, I'd like to raise and take the blinds. If I'm called I've got so much in the pot that I'm basically committed and I have to move in on the flop regardless, which is good until you're called, which is a lock that you're beaten. Moving in PF is probably desired, but again, the big stacks often play fast and loose and will call with a wide range. Getting in as a 60% favorite seems good, until you're beaten again. Blind stealing at this level is tough too, because you'd rather not devote 1/3 of your stack to a steal, so you're basically moving in, which never feels good. Besides crossing your fingers and moving in a lot, any other suggestions? You'll note I have nothing to say on being a big stack at this level, as I have no experience playing as such.
Stage 4 - Post money. At this point, all the short stacks do their best to get out, happy with having played 5 and a half hours and winning $4.72. Just NOT going out here immediately will often move you up 2 or 3 pay spots. By this time I'm almost always extremely short stacked and just trying to hold on for a big hand, with every spot I move up a positive. The big stacks tend to be merciless at this time, and your stack is usually such a size that somebody will call you with a mediocre hand, just due to pot odds. There's probably a step 5, final table, but since I've only been there twice, I don't think I am qualified to discuss like I know anything about it
I know all tournaments are going to have a large fluctuations and consistency will be tough, especially with fields this big. Playing these is probably a huge -EV play, but I really enjoy them and have a real taste for winning another one (It's been a year now
) By my estimation from the hundreds of these that I've played, you're going to have to have a lot of things go right for you to succeed. I'd imagine that you'll be all in probably 20-30 times minimum. Of which you're going to have to win every time you're called by a bigger stack. You're going to have to play 4-5 coin flips, and win them all. You're going to have to avoid the suckouts, the flushes, the straight draws, and the under pairs hitting. You're going to have to win with AK and AQ. You're going to have to avoid any mental lapses/mistakes that you may make, as well as capitalize on any and all mistakes others do. And you're going to have to do all of this for 7 hours minimum. When I put it that way, I'm not really sure why I play these things, it's just so daunting of a task. I mean, $8000 for first place would be dynamite, and the chance of a big payday will keep me coming back, but it really does seem like a huge waste. Anybody who's read this far, sorry I don't have any profound revelation and I doubt I taught anybody anything, other than to maybe not play these tournaments
But any advice or commentary would be appreciated. Now that I got excel on my computer I can start keeping track of my results for these things. That should be interesting... Entry one is of course Monday's sterling 184th place finish and $5.91 in profit. Unfortunately, entry two is yesterday's 1392 -$22 finish 
Drade
Statistics: Posted by Drade — Tue Mar 22, 2005 1:27 pm
]]>