I think MP's range should be something like a decent pair or two big cards. AA-TT and AK, AQ or KQ.
SB should have any pair below QQ, or at least AJs or AQ.
SB's check/raise on the flop could mean a set, top pair or flush draw. Or just a bluff considering the history.
MP's call must mean he has something but he seems worried about being beaten. I think that makes AA and KK less likely, AQ, KQ and JJ more likely.
SB's bet on the turn doesn't change anything, he's expected to bet there no matter what he holds. MP's call should eliminate JJ, leaving us with AQ and KQ as most likely. KQ more likely because of post flop action, but AQ more likely because of preflop.
I think SB's bet on the end is a strong means weak thing. If he wanted value he would just make a "normal" bet not to draw attention to himself. He could in fact be separating the stacks to leave himself with a small chance to recover if he loses but trying toi make it look strong. Or of course he could be leveling this... HOWEVER. He really can't expect his opponent to fold to this bet, which means he either wants some value or he messed up.
HOWEVER, the A on the river indeed does reduce the likelyhood of a flush draw, unless SB made a really bad call preflop with a SC (bad because he is in horrible position), and the flush draw distribution makes up a wide part of the range that MP's probable Top Pair hand can beat, leaving only bluffs since there's no way SB is betting a hand for value here than can't beat TP.
I think MP should call because he definetely has odds, the chance of SB making a stupid bluff here is definetely bigger than needed by pot odds. I do however think that IF he has AQ or KQ he should have found a place to push or fold earlier in the hand. I'd say either fold to the flop check/raise or push the turn.
MP: AQ, KQ
SB: 66, or T9s.Statistics: Posted by Stoneburg — Sun May 13, 2007 7:33 am
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