Now about play 9Ts... again I disagree with aisthesis. This is exactly the type of hand you wanna be playing, especially with two limpers. You can't sit around and wait for a premium hand to move in on. Let's assume you get a premium hand every 2.5 rounds. Well, half of the time you're gonna pick up the blinds, or a real short stack will call you. And the other half of the time you get in with about a 75% chance to double up. I suck at odds but that doesn't really look that promising as far as increasing your chip count FAST.
I think FAST is the key word here. Sure you've got twenty BB left now, but in 5-10 minutes you'll probably be down to about 8 or 9. And then, as already stated, it's move in or fold time. Is that the position you want to be in? Sitting around praying for some cards, and the IF you get them, praying that you win with them?
Let's assume you manage to double up once in that round. Then you're just back to where you started, at around 20BB. So in effect, by playing that way, your one goal is to manage to go from 20BB to 10BB and then back to 20BB. Not only that, but you probably won't even get back there more than 60% of the time. That's not all though, because in 5 minutes, the blinds are going up AGAIN and you have to do the same thing! So now you have about 60% chance to get back there again, so you can try to do it yet another time when blinds move up again. Soooo, basically, about 5% of the time, in an hour, you'll be exactly where you were an hour ago, except you'll be in the money (slightly).
Now obviously some time you'll manage to catch a streak and get a good sized chip stack, but not more than 1 fifth of that 5% of the time you get into the money. Getting to the top 3 about 1% of the time just doesn't seem like much in the way of profits.
Now obviously, my thinking is somewhat flawed by the fact that 63.7% of all my figures were made up on the spot. But I think my point is still relevant, if not completely correct.Statistics: Posted by Dumb Snowman — Thu May 05, 2005 12:44 am
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