Not sure how much of a fan I am of the call tho in this spot. You open early with AKo and are called by shortish stack (11-12k?) and then a donk moves in for the balance of your stack ~34k. Making some assumptions here; lets say short stack has a range of any pocket pair, KQs - K9s, QJs - Q9s, J10s - J9s, 109s and Ako - J10o. Lets assume the donkey has a range that is AA - 66, AKs-A10s, AKo - AJo, KQs, QJs, KQo and KJo, the following equity numbers are you ~40%, shorty ~25, donk ~35. You have to call about 34k to win a pot of ~110. Makes your call slightly +ev (+10kish) with the rather loose range of hands on the donk pushing.
However, I would argue using my first rule of internet poker, which is that even donks get cards too, is that even tho he is an idiot and has been hyper aggressive, you are more likely to be shown a bigger hand here than not. Reason being is that he is risking a large chunk of his stack very close to the final table, in the event he is called, and you crush him. If you reduce his hand range slightly, to just AA-66, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo and KQs/KQ your equity drops to ~36%. Making the call marginally +ev (5kish). I would argue that his hand range is actually tighter, more in line with AKs/o - AQs/o and AA-maybe 99. In which case your equity is ~30%, making it slightly negative ev. You also have to take into account that some of your outs are dead by the shorty when he calls or you are already behind a small pocket which you have to fade as well. I find it hard to think of a shorty calling all in with less than 10 9s tho you could maybe talk me into 98/76/65 etc if he didnt have approx ~3bb (given your final pot of ~110k). I would be more apt to put him on an Ace x or two broadway, or pocket pair.
If you are playing on a site such as Bodog which doesn't have antes, I would be even more inclined to fold. You still have 34k which is 8+bb and the avg stack at the final table will be ~37k. I just think there is a better spot to get my money in before the bubble breaks for the final table than as either slightly positive ev to slightly negative ev. I also would rather have a made hand if possible and preferably big when call off my stack if humanly possible. I really don't think your equity in this pot is much over 30% anytime with AK here. I would guess it to be more in the ~27% camp. I have been able to win when making the final table with <4bb so although winning this hand greatly increases your chance of a top 3 finish, it also in the long run will leave you on the final table bubble in my opinion. I just don't think his hand range is that wide here 9 out of 10 times, donkey or not.
Sorry if I rambled or my numbers are off, but I've been drinking.
Best of luck
ShakStatistics: Posted by Horshak — Thu Sep 15, 2005 11:51 pm
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