These numbers are completely off the top of my head, (in other words, feel free to correct them but don't say I'm an idiot, lol) but let's say:
Tier 1 - AA, KK, QQ - 4:1 dog - you win 20% of the time.
Tier 2 - AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, JJ - 2:1 dog (?) - you win 33%
Tier 3 - TT and below (pairs) - 55/45 dog - you win 45%
We can rule out all other hands if you like, since it's pretty doubtful he does this with JT or something.
Now let's guess - put him on Tier 1 maybe 20% of the time = .2 x .2 = .04
Tier 2 - 50% of the time - .5 x .33 = .165
Tier 3 - 30% of the time - .3 x .45 = .135
.04 + .165 + .135 = .34 = you are about a 2:1 dog.
Assuming my numbers are close (they very well might not be), you are right on the edge between either a call or a fold. You are getting slightly better than 2:1, so if called it could be correct, but it's really a 50/50 shot here. What might sway me against calling is the fact that with all those limpers it's very possible a ton of your outs are gone. If you had KJ instead of QJ then the odds shift quite a bit in favor of calling, but I'd probably fold here and plan on moving in pretty soon with an M down below 8.Statistics: Posted by JDLush — Tue Dec 13, 2005 2:57 pm
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