2) basically 1:1 like you said.
3) his play was not that bad if he can stand the variance. if he factors in fold equity, this might even be mariginally +ev. some good lags will pull moves similar to this if one of their cards pair AND they have the flush draw and someone bets out on the flop (sweetening the pot). they get all the money in the middle and have outs to the flush, 2pr, and trips AND they have fold equity.
Statistics: Posted by Kuso — Wed Feb 08, 2006 10:39 am
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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed)
UTG+2 ($17.20)
MP1 ($24)
MP2 ($23.60)
MP3 ($25.22)
CO ($12.50)
Hero ($27.80)
SB ($9.75)
BB ($13.53)
UTG ($24.75)
UTG+1 ($22.40)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
![[9d]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9d.gif "The Nine of Diamonds")
, ![[9h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/9h.gif "The Nine of Hearts")
. SB posts a blind of $0.10. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.75, MP1 calls $0.75.
Flop: ($3.60)
![[2h]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/2h.gif "The Two of Hearts")
, ![[4s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/4s.gif "The Four of Spades")
, ![[3s]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3s.gif "The Three of Spades")
(3 players)UTG+2 checks, MP1 calls $23 (All-In), Hero calls $23, UTG+2 folds.
Turn: ($49.60)
![[Tc]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/Tc.gif "The Ten of Clubs")
(2 players, 1 all-in)River: ($49.60)
![[3c]](https://livepokerforum.com/images/smilies/3c.gif "The Three of Clubs")
(2 players, 1 all-in)Final Pot: $49.60
Results in white below:
MP1 has Qs 8s (one pair, threes).
Hero has 9d 9h (two pair, nines and threes).
Outcome: Hero wins $49.60.
Ok when he pushes on the flop a few things go through my mind:
1. He doesn't respect my raise on the button
2. He might have put me on AK - AQ - KQ and thinks this board missed me.
3. He has some weird holding with a 4 or a 3 and he doesn't want to see an extra card
4. He doesn't have a set or a straight and run me off the hand (I have been playing tight)
5. Conclusion: He is on a bluff, so I call
(1) Did I miss anything in my read?
Ok so I won a big pot as a 52.83% vs 45.35% slight favorite (1.82% tie) and I felt happy about my call
After I analyze this a few questions:
In HoH Dan says if you bet $100 in a $100 pot you are giving your opponent 2-1 to call. But in this hand the pot size was nowhere near bet size, so:
(2) What odds was I been given? 1-1? The pot (3,60) virtually disappeared after the rake (2,45)
I am not that advanced yet where I can put my opponent on a range of hands real quick and calculate the odds on every hand, I think if I could I would have folded because I am underdog in these cases:
AJs-A6s (I don't put him on AQ or AK because he would have reraised and no A5s because he would have milked the near nuts)
KQs-J10s (anything in between)
(3) Who would fold?
So this seems like a super donkey play but after analyzing it seems only like a semi sorta donkey play. It didn't work because he just limped and called my raise, thus I didnt respect him.
Statistics: Posted by JayB — Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:44 pm
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