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Live Poker Forum - Online Poker Forums & Hand Analysis Poker Forum 2005-06-07T16:21:40-06:00 https://livepokerforum.com/feed.php?f=9&t=3797&mode 2005-06-07T16:21:40-06:00 2005-06-07T16:21:40-06:00 https://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=3797&p=26179#p26179 <![CDATA[EV Error in Article?]]>
Tim

Statistics: Posted by T-Rod — Tue Jun 07, 2005 4:21 pm

]]> 2005-06-07T13:41:53-06:00 2005-06-07T13:41:53-06:00 https://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=3797&p=26146#p26146 <![CDATA[EV Error in Article?]]>
It's 4.2:1 against the flush hitting on the next card, so you need to charge a little over 1/3 of the pot for the call to be -EV for them. That assumes that you won't pay off if the flush hits though. Generally it's best to just pick a standard bet, somewhere between 2/3 pot to full pot, so that they won't be able to pick any patterns out of your betting.

Statistics: Posted by Nortonesque — Tue Jun 07, 2005 1:41 pm

]]> 2005-06-07T10:43:21-06:00 2005-06-07T10:43:21-06:00 https://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=3797&p=26122#p26122 <![CDATA[Thanks]]>
So to stop a flush draw (which is about 35% of hitting) I should be betting at lease slightly better than the pot?

Tim

Statistics: Posted by T-Rod — Tue Jun 07, 2005 10:43 am

]]> 2005-06-03T16:09:32-06:00 2005-06-03T16:09:32-06:00 https://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=3797&p=25576#p25576 <![CDATA[EV Error in Article?]]>
Kent's article is essentially the same formula, but rearranged. So if your chance of winning is n, and the pot is Y and the amount you have to call is X, break-even EV would look like:

n*Y - (1-n)*X = 0

in Aisthesis' formula. So if you solve for n you get

n = X/(Y+X)

which is Kent's formula, for the minimum chance to win that you need to call.

In the example you give, it costs you 10 to play, but you only lose that 10 2/3 of the time, so it really costs you 6.66 to play (hence, the call is 0 EV).

Personally I find it easier to just look at the pot odds I'm getting and the odds against my hand (this is just another version of the same formula). Calling 10 to win 20 is 2:1 pot odds, and 33% chance of winning is 2:1 against my hand. As long as the pot odds are greater than (or equal to) the odds against your hand, calling is correct.

Statistics: Posted by Nortonesque — Fri Jun 03, 2005 4:09 pm

]]> 2005-06-03T13:11:04-06:00 2005-06-03T13:11:04-06:00 https://livepokerforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=3797&p=25536#p25536 <![CDATA[EV Error in Article?]]>
If you win, don' t you get 220 back? That's 160 plus your call amount of 60. The way I compute it is if I win, I get .25 of 220 which is 55. However, it costs me 60 to do it so I shouldn't. Are these two formulas the same?

I notice that other Pot Odds articles typically add in your call amount to the EV calculation. Kent's article titled Calling X into a Y pot (all-in) seems to do this.

Am I missing something here? Which is the proper way.

In another example it could be different. Say the pot is $10 and some guy bets the pot and you have a 33.3% chance of sucess. Call? Well if you don't add in your call to the winnings... pot was 10, gut raised it to 20. Okay 1/3 chance of winning 20 which is an EV of about 6.66 and it costs me 10 play. Yuck. negative EV so don't call. OR if you add in your amount... pot was 10, guy raised it to 20, you call bringing pot to 30. So you win a total of 30 when you hit. You have a 1/3 chance of hitting so that's an EV of 10 with it costing you 10 to call. A push.

What am I missing? Grr

Tim

Statistics: Posted by T-Rod — Fri Jun 03, 2005 1:11 pm

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