Okay, in the spirit of growing a pair of balls, I'm going to post a hand that I KNOW I'm gonna get flamed over on so many levels. Truth be told, I made some...ahem...rather questionable decisions, and did get lucky to win a huge pot. However, I also think I did some things right, for a change! I'll post the hand, followed by analysis/desperate-rationalizations.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: TW is MP2 with , .
4 folds, TW raises, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, TW calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13 SB) , , (4 players)
SB bets, TW raises, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB 3-bets, TW caps, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) (4 players)
SB checks, TW bets, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (18.50 BB) (4 players)
SB checks, TW bets, MP3 folds, Button calls, SB raises, TW 3-bets, Button folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 25.50 BB

Results in white below:
SB has As Ac (three of a kind, aces).
TW has Td Jd (flush, ace high).
Outcome: TW wins 25.50 BB.

Okay, so we begin with the open-raising of JTs from MP2. Obviously, a well-thought-out, strategically planned maneuver, based on my image and reads of the opponents remaining to act, right? NOT! I'll admit that, if anything, this type of open-raise usually only has merits in one of the final positions. But oh well, I'm a loose, undisciplined bastard, so I raised it anyway.

Okay, so clearly, not everything goes to plan, and I get two callers and a 3-bet. Ugh. But the flop brings hope, giving me a gutshot, a flush draw, and two VERY questionable overcards; the ten, in particular, can't really be considered an out at all. Okay, so SB bets out, and I raise; my feelings here were that the pot was growing quite large; if I could knock out hands like KJ or QJ, I would greatly increase my equity if the preflop 3-bettor happens to have AK.

Boy, that didn't work! Both call, and I get 3-bet, so now I'm almost certain I'm up against a big pair in the SB. But, I still do have a buncha outs, so I cap it for value! If those other two already called two bets, I figure they'll call two more, and they don't disappoint.

The turn brings a jack, which I know isn't good. But it does provide 2 more outs that'll probably give me a win. I also am about 95% sure a ten would beat the SB, but I know it'll probably make a straight for one or both of the other callers, so clearly, that can't be counted. Nevertheless, I'm figuring upon a solid 14 outs (9 diamonds, 3 non-diamond 9's, and 2 jacks). I also figure nobody's gonna drop for one more big bet, so when the SB checks, I decide to value bet again. I found that pretty interesting, because it's rare that you can still continue to value-bet a draw on the turn. The river plays itself, and turned out to be the perfect card for me.

Okay, there's a lot of things I'll probably get criticized on for this hand, but hey, I'll take my lumps! Rip away.

-TW

TightWad, i liked your play, and your reasoning. But what do i know?

TW,

Don't like the pre flop MP raise with suited connector but with a flop giving you that many outs and the aggression of your opponents maiking it fairly obvious your straight and probably your flush draws were good you can't fold. And since you are not folding you chose to be the aggressor. From reading your journal and other posts I get the impression you have no problem keeping your play aggressive.

Good win

I bet the SB was pissed thinking he was against KK or a set of Jacks, thats what I would have put you on playing that aggressively.


BK

Bri / BKAZ,

The preflop raise was certainly the most questionable of my many questionable decisions in this hand. In fact, I'm fully willing to admit that, long-term, raising JTs in this spot is NOT a profitable move. As Brian said, it can be a decent way to mix things up, but the fact remains that I do it too often. I don't think it's completely disastrous either, but definitely something I should cut back a bit on.

Norton,

If both callers drop, I gain additional two pair outs, but it's still definitely negative value...If one drops, and my math is correct, it's still slightly -EV. So your right, it was pretty close and relies on both MP3 and the button calling another bet. But I felt that since they were each willing to put in 4 small bets, two at a time, there was a good chance they'd both call.

I should additionally note that had the SB lead the turn, I most certainly would not have raised.

-TW

I don't think raising is that bad here, if it's bad at all. When I'm coming in at MP3 or later, and no one else is in yet, I almost always raise. Now, if I knew I was going to be called in 3 places, I probably wouldn't raise with JTs, but if I think I'll be called by just the BB and maybe the SB I will.

I was thinking 14 outs was just under 3 to 1, but I guess it's more like 2.3 to 1, so I've changed my mind on the turn bet. The SB really should have bet out with AA -- I don't know what he was thinking.