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still suck at limit 5/10 hand

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still suck at limit 5/10 hand

Postby kennyg » Fri Mar 18, 2005 5:44 pm

I keep getting raised out of hands on this table. Just wondered what you guys thought about this one in particular. I thought it was the correct fold but it bothered me.

Ultimate Bet 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: kennyg is SB with [Qc], [Ac].
8 folds, kennyg raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) [Kh], [Js], [Ad] (2 players)
kennyg bets, BB raises, kennyg 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) [Kc] (2 players)
kennyg bets, BB raises, kennyg folds.

Final Pot: 8 BB

Results in white below:
No showdown. BB wins 8 BB.
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Postby TightWad » Fri Mar 18, 2005 5:49 pm

Kenny,

The fact that this is a heads-up battle of the blinds makes laying down a bit tougher, but I still think a fold is correct here. After you 3-bet the flop, it's hard to think he'd raise you on the turn without a king (or possible QT).

-TW
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Postby Nortonesque » Fri Mar 18, 2005 8:31 pm

That's a tough one, but probably a good laydown if he wasn't super aggressive. Those blind battles are very read dependent -- how aggressive is your opponent, how often have you been raising his blind, have you just beat him out of a big pot, etc.
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Postby Mad Genius » Sat Mar 19, 2005 1:32 pm

If you are gonna fold to a turn raise don't you think it's better to check-call? You still invest 1-bet but it gets you to the river cheaper. I personally like calling this one down as it will only cost you 2 bets and there will be 9 bets in assuming he bets both turn and river. I don't think he has AK since he didn't 3-bet preflop, and it's hard to see him raising and calling your 3-bet on the flop with just a King. He could have KQ but also something like AJ or AT. I'm no limit guru by any means so I'm probably wrong here though.
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Postby cholo loco » Wed Mar 30, 2005 5:41 am

you cant just check call every time you wil fold if your raised. sometimes that might be right but you cant just let them have freecards at their discretion and value when they have it. i def like betting out and folding to a raise here. if i dont get raised i check call the river though. what do you do if you check the turn and he bets both streets. just call down. if you dont have the best hand you dont have enough outs to continue.
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Postby Snoogins47 » Wed Mar 30, 2005 7:51 am

Seeing as you're getting about 9:2 to show it down before rake, it's mostly a matter of how likely it is that your opponent is raising light, whether that be a bluff, or a naked Ace that likes his kicker more now that the board paired?

Hero has a modest amount of equity against most of the hands he is behind to, and is rarely drawing completely dead. We can't ignore that.

If our opponent would NEVER raise a hand that we're ahead of/if he is also holding AQ, then a fold would be correct. I think it's close enough that what little prior information we have here (you have been consistently getting pushed out of pots, and this is a battle of the blinds) might make calling down the best option.

If we figure the opponent will not raise any hand we're ahead of or splitting with (that is, he'll raise AK, JJ, KK, AA, and most any hand with a K), I figure Hero wins the pot around 10% of the time. If we add in even a small-ish chance of our opponent holding AQ, AJ, AT, or some other random hand we're not thinking of (read as: weird bluff), the scale tips quite quickly toward calling down.

Now, having no experience at the UB 5/10 games, I can't make a sound judgement, as it is EXTREMELY player dependent. If the opponent seems to be at all on the aggressive side in situations like these, or against our hero specifically, or anything like that, it's a clear call-down.

Mad Genius: I think it's quite likely our opponent would play KQ, KT, or even something like K9 or K8 this way, especially if he's paying any attention and the hero is capable of stealing at least somewhat liberally. Put yourself in your opponent's shoes, and pretend you have KQ, KT, etc. While there's a ton of hands "hero" would raise with from the SB that have us absolutely crushed, there's also a good deal that we are now ahead of, and hero will probably bet this flop somewhere around 100% of the time after raising preflop.
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