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2nd nut 1 card flush draw deep (NL$50 6-max) - Live Poker Forums

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2nd nut 1 card flush draw deep (NL$50 6-max)

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2nd nut 1 card flush draw deep (NL$50 6-max)

Postby MTPaid » Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:23 pm

Don't have many hands vs opponent. HUD stats just popped up as a matter of fact but he's over 50 VP$IP and pretty crazy aggressive so far. If we didn't have double stacks, I probably would have stuck it in preflop.

Thoughts on the min-raise on the flop? I was kind of fishing for information and trying to get 2 cards cheaply. Plus the min-raise usually scares the shit outta people in a spot like this.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at

Stacks:
Hero ($98.50)
CO ($48.00)
BTN ($58.05)
SB ($129.45)
BB ($193.40)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is UTG [Kd] [As]
Hero raises to $1.75 ($96.75), 2 folds, SB raises to $5 ($124.20), 1 fold, Hero calls $3.25 ($93.50)

Flop: [5d] [6d] [9d] ($10.50, 2 players)
SB bets $10 ($114.45), Hero raises to $20 ($73.50), SB goes all-in $124.45 ($0.00), Hero folds ($73.50)

Final Pot: $50.50

SB wins $152.95 ( won +$23.50 )
Hero lost -$25.00
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Postby Bosox1 » Thu Jun 12, 2008 1:57 pm

I would probably fold the turn with only a few hands of history. He might not really be aggressive but just have had great hands 5 of the last 10. I pretty much hate min-raising. Against a passive player it might induce a check on the turn but since he's been aggro you have no guarantee he won't call and bet the turn (or shove like he did here). Without more history you don't know.

If he really did have a VP$P of 50 over 100 hands or something I would call the turn. Because you are so deep you have good implied odds to call. There is a very good chance you have 15 outs here.
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Postby k3nt » Thu Jun 12, 2008 2:28 pm

I understand the flop minraise, I sometimes do stuff like this, and often it works. This time, ick.

Well, now you have to call $73.50 more to win $124.

Gotta win 73.5 times out of 197.5 or about 37% to break even.

9 outs = 35%, 10 outs = 38.4%. So you have to have almost 10 outs on average to make this a call.

IMO this is a clear call with the [Ad] because you never have fewer than 7 outs and will often have way more. But with just the [Kd] you can occasionally have close to zero outs. I think it's pretty close and I don't mind a fold at all.

EDIT: Oops, I think you only win $114 when you win, not $124. So you need 39%+ equity, or a little more than 10 outs. Easier fold than I thought.
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Postby MTPaid » Thu Jun 12, 2008 3:50 pm

Which is why I opted for the min-raise on the flop. I felt that I could easily fold if he shoved. I'm not pulling this with the [Ad].
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Postby ryans » Thu Jun 19, 2008 7:50 pm

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Postby Danhdan » Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:24 pm

These aren't deep stacks. 4-bet to $20 against this opponent every time plz, and call a push. If you want, you can fold to a push, but meh, I wouldn't. On this flop I am not folding. I hate the minraise on the flop...I'd rather raise to $30 and call a push. A minraise doesn't scare a VPIP 50+ crazy aggro player...nothing does except maybe lack of action.

Ryan, MT is only drawing dead or really slim to AAd or all flopped Adxd hands in this scenario. I think the push is a clear call based on read.
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Postby ryans » Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:38 pm

Ok, will get back to you on this have to go back to the terms page (i swear if my memory gets any worse they are gonna put me in a "home"), gotto check "deep stacks" and vpip.

Also, "I think the push is a clear call based on read." a little more details please... (still very much a newbie.)

One of the things that got this game so popular, guys like me can play the game decently (debatable :lol: ) but can totally get lost in the lingo at times... and from the very first hand i played this game i though "hey, this is easy, i can do it" and everytime i look back a *month* i wonder how i ever kicked anybodys ass or made any cash!
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Postby MTPaid » Fri Jun 20, 2008 2:56 pm

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Postby Jossnaz » Mon Jun 23, 2008 9:36 am

the deeper the stacks, the worse it is to get allin preflop with AK.

if we give villain a wide range to 3bet and a tight range to call a 4bet/shove (which is normally the case) we are in trouble. Cause as soon as we 4bet/shove he's only calling us when we are beat. Calling a shove is even worse with AK cause we beat actually nothing, he's not shoving with AQ. We hope to be a coinflip vs jj, qq or split vs AK.
say we 4bet to 15$
villain shoves

we have to call 85$ in a 115$ pot means we have to have an equity of 73%

AK is preflop good cause we have FEQ and once we put a big chunk of our stack in, we are fine calling. Still, calling is pretty bad with AK against a tight range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.540% 24.68% 15.86% 182578824 117305460.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 59.460% 43.60% 15.86% 322525584 117305460.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

standard would be
u raise, villain 3 bets to 12bb
you 4bet to 40bb
he shoves

you get 42% pot odds. And you have against a tight shove range 40% equity.

with ur read btw i'm fine calling his minlike 3bet IP cause i dont know what to do once he shoves / calls your 4bet. He's likely to hang himself with a lot crap. 3bet stats help a lot

and i dont like the flopminraise. there is no "inforaise"
either i call or fold. I think i fold this one not sure though
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