I was playing at about 30/25 with >2 agression at each street postflop. Opponent seems to be one of the TAG regulars..
Effective stacks are 135.

I am the BB with

Preflop:
Folded to SB and he raises to 4.5, I call. (Sometimes I would reraise, sometimes call.)

Flop (9):
SB bets 8, I call.

Turn (25):
SB checks, I bet 13, SB calls

River (51):
SB checks, I bet 25, SB CR AI (after thinking for a couple of seconds.)
(I need to call about 85 into 100 pot).

All thoughts are appreciated.

(Just ot clarify: sometimes I'd 3 bet preflop, sometimes I'd raise flop. )

I think you should fold. His repping a boat (or possibly the ). Your hand is transparent and I can't really think of a hand he does this with that you beat, other than a bluff, and I don't think anyone bluffs here.

I agree w/ Stoneburg that this is a fold. Unless, he is a TOTAL DONK who only plays his cards is this a fold. The only possible hand that does this is a hand with the . I do not see hime raising A5,A2,A4. He may very well have quads,33,44. As he bet the flop, the checked the turn when the obvious hit and called looking to boat or quad up. That is also a great spot to try a river C/R as he is certain you have the flush and certain you are gonna bet the river. If you don't bet the river you were not gonna call a VB anyway so he loses nothing.

kof kof.. I think your turn bet sucks.

River really looks like a fold.

@ red

I doubt that he ever has here, it makes no sense to play it like that.

As for small turn bet, we need to decide first how many outs he normally has. IMO most of his range are Ax and he has either 4 or no outs, making half-pot VB quite normal.

Thanks for the replies.

In the hand I called, after spending a bit of time trying to put him on a range.

On the river he represents x, full house or quads.
is unlikely as he would CR turn or bet turn, it makes no sense to play it like that, so we are left with full houses or better.
As he seemed to me a normal TAG with quite low preflop raise of about 10%, it makes A5, A4, A2 less likely (in my experience many TAGs limp these hands), similarly many TAgs wouldn't raise 22, 44 and 55 in this spot. Ok, may be 55.

So his play is consistent with him having 55 and AA.
Moreover I had a 'feeling' that he actually held an A. But even if his play is consistent only with AA and 55 it is still a call, as we put him on too narrow range. (Add the possibility that he wouldn't CB with 55 every time on flop, making 55 a bit less likely.)


With such thoughts in mind I called and he showed .

What impressed me is that just at 100NL, people are trying to make such complicated bluffs. Games are clearly getting tougher.

P.S. @ Triple B, you need to check some psychological studies about estimating probailities, it doesn't relate to poker explicitly, but it could help nevertheless. It was found that we tend to make big mistakes in estimating the rare events. Your estimation of 0.000001%, tells that I should have picked such a bluff once in 10^8 hands, once in 100 million hands. No one in the history of humanity plyed that many hands, moreover no one would have found himself in such a spot 1000 times, let alone 100 million. So, you couldn't possibly have any evidence to give such an extreme estimation. You see?
Just for your info, once again, it doesn't neccesary relates to poker.