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Postby k3nt » Mon Mar 28, 2005 2:25 pm

TUP - your posts outline sort of what I was thinking about as the only other way of playing it. Thanks for working through some of the numbers and giving your thoughts. Very helpful stuff.

In general, what you're saying is this: if you can put somebody on a flush draw, you may do better to let the turn card hit and only then try to push them off their draw if the 3rd flush card doesn't come. Plus you can fold if it does come, saving some $$.

Do you think this is a good rule in general? "Always bet and call a raise -- but don't go all-in -- even with the nuts on the flop, if there's a flush draw out that will beat you if it hits." Or is this play dependent on this being a 3-way pot so that the flush chaser has odds to chase?

One other problem. I can't fold to a K or a T without also folding to a J. But a J doesn't actually beat me in this hand! That's annoying. I count 8 hearts (I have 1), 2 Ts, 2 Ks, and 3 Js (can't count the [Jh] twice) that will make me feel like my hand may be no good on the turn -- that's 15 total scare cards. But only 12 of them actually beat me. Can I definitely check/fold if the board pairs on the turn? I'm not sure I can.
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:00 pm

TUP... far be it from me to question you... but if a blank hit on the turn, doesn't he still have reason to call the allin (the flush chaser...)? He also has outs for a straight (if a 7 hits), and the way Kent bet preflop, he didn't really represent AQ, and after the flop, still didn't... Not knowing his cards, I may have guessed KQ or AJ or midpair... I'm pretty sure this guy still thinks his straight (if the 7 hits) is still good... So he thinks he has 8 heart outs (not counting the Q, which would kill him if Kent had an A) and 3 other 7s. Is 11 outs enough to justify a call by him? (I apologize if my math is abysmal, but I'm typing at work...)...
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:03 pm

Kent... as much as I hate it, I would probably let this go if the board paired or another heart hits... maybe throw out a decent sized bet, and see what happens... if you get raised, I'd cut and run... Sucks to fold a nut straight, but better than losing to a low flush...
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Postby TheUnknownPlayer » Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:28 pm

Kent,

You asked, Do you think this is a good rule in general? "Always bet and call a raise -- but don't go all-in -- even with the nuts on the flop, if there's a flush draw out that will beat you if it hits."

Well, certainly if they put you all-in you have to call with the nuts but don't you be the one to push all-in if there's a flush draw out that will beat you if it hits. Again, that's general - everything in poker is situationally dependent and your opponent has alot to do with it. As I said in my original post on this topic, "You want to induce your opponents to make a mistake. If they are prepared to make a mistake then you want them to make the biggest mistake from the potpourii of mistakes that they are willing to make." This is the key which makes the general rule work. They have to be willing to make a mistake. If they are then you simply make the play which has the highest EV - in this case waiting till the turn to go all-in.

As far as the Jack coming on the turn - I understand and you are completely right. I left it out simply because I decided that a guy who called a $31 re-raise when he had at most 4 outs (he could have been drawing dead) would be sure to misplay it. But certainly you don't want to see a jack either. He really might check this down though simply because his hand is abysmal if a jack comes. He's got top pair/no kicker.

MVPSPORTS,

By all means question me - I'm not done making mistakes - or learning for that matter. Anyway, if in fact the BB decides that he has 11 outs out of the 46 unknown cards on the turn, then he'll be getting pot odds of approximately $56.50:$31 or less than 2:1 and has less than 35:11 against making his hand - or more than 3:1 against. Even if he assumes that there is 100% chance of the LP player calling he is only getting $87.50:$31 or 2.82:1 which is still insufficient to make the call correct.

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Postby Yogadude » Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:20 pm

Jeez, after reading TUP's post on this topic I realize how much there is to think about in this game...thanks for increasing my chances of winning.

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Postby k3nt » Tue Mar 29, 2005 11:49 am

TUP, that is a brilliant and perfect response. Thanks.

Let them make mistakes. And the the bigger the mistake, the better. I can remember that. :)
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