25c/50c NL at Gaming Club. I am down a bit on the table and have $35.50 left. Both of my opponents have me covered (barely).

I am in the SB with [Qc]. 3 limpers to me, I raise to $1.50 (3x the BB). All 3 call, so does the BB.

5 to the flop, pot is $7.50.

[Th][Kh]

Wow. Doesn't get much better than that. I am first to act, think a little bit and throw out a $3.00 bet. BB calls. Two folds. LP re-raises to $6.00. I think a bit then go all-in for my last $31. BB calls! LP calls!!

BB has [8h] for the flush draw -- he's also on the straight draw but hitting it won't help him.
LP has [Tc] for two pair

Turn
River and I lose the $115ish pot on just another suckout.


So. Any other way to play it? I basically feel good about the hand but would like some informed opinions. Thanks.

Bummer Kent. I know how it feels - I have been losing on those hands too.

I'm not sure I would have gone all in on the reraise, I probably would have raised back about $15. It probably wouldn't have made much difference though, because any bet on the next street takes me all in, so your play is probably the better one.

Interestingly - you are only a 53% favorite over those two hands when your money went in. That surprised me when I ran it through the odds calculator. Flopping the nut straight looks so good and yet it isn't really all that unbeatable in this situation.

I'll be interested in seeing what others have to say about this hand.

This sucks but you played this right, you have the nuts what can you do?

K3nt... I know you recently moved up in stakes, so if I'm the first, let me officially welcome you to getting d*cked and it costing you more money than it used to... There's no good way to play the hand.. slowplaying would've lost you your money quicker... The only suggestion I would have (and I'm only saying it cause I knew what they have now) would have been to go allin right away... No way the draw calls, and the K10 would almost definitely go allin... That said, I would've played it the same as you probably...

You played it fine. Once theres a raise, you can bet your last dollar he has 2 pair (or a set). Get it all in now because hes not folding.

He may only be a 53% fav, but hes getting 2-1 on his money also. 2-1 is a huge overlay when youre the favortie to win the hand. Good hand, bad luck. Next!

Since the title of the thread appeals to my picky mood...

(1) Why were you only playing with $35? If you hadn't been drawn out on, it could have cost you 2x$15, or 60 big blinds! From the post it sounded like you'd let it drop to that level; I can't think of any circumstances at these limits for which this is a good idea.

(2) No-one else commented on the raise w AQo. You raised to 3BB out of position with an OKish hand ... why? If you want to thin the field, you need to raise more. I don't think AQo is a good enough hand to build the pot when out of position. Personally I'd have limped, but a big raise is OK too ... I think a medium raise is the worst of all worlds.

(3) Personally I'd have led more into the flop. The last thing you want is loads of callers getting in cheaply with pairs+broadway gutshots or flush draws. What you want is to isolate one idiot who thinks his 2 pair KJ is good, and bust him.

If you lead for say $6, get one caller, then get min raised by Mr KT, there's $31.5 in the pot, so your reraise all-in has a much better chance of getting called. If Mr KT gets cold feet because you've bet strongly and just calls, that's cool too; the flush draw folds when you push the turn, but there's a great chance two pair will call.

Every good play has its' punishment! This is close to a worse-case scenario but you were up against alot of outs and werent that far ahead even thuogh u had the temporarty nuts. With 12 cards to beat you and no more betting you are actually were only about a 55-60% favorite so even though it seems horrible it really isnt that bad of a beat. next time they wont catch up!

good flops

YD

The reality is there isn't much you can probably do to chase him off a gutshot with flush draw on the flop or turn, when he thinks you have top pair top kicker or AA. This guy wants to see all five cards, and will pay probably any price to do it. You got the most in the middle with the best of it, only a shame you didn't have the flush redraw to go with it

Everybody is basically positive about the way I played this except Smokin' Al. So first of all, thanks to everybody for your support. The suckout actually didn't hurt me that much (emotionally) because I was up a buy-in at another table and basically broke even for the session.

Now, let me try to address Al's questions.

(1) For some reason, it is important for me to be able to easily keep track of how I am doing on my tables. I'm probably still too results-oriented. In fact, I know that I am. I want to play correctly, but I also want it to pay off for me and to be able to see that. Right now I'm playing three $50 tables at once, and I like to be able to glance at all the tables, add them up in my head real quick (I'm good at instant easy arithmetic), subtract $150 and find out whether I'm up or down. So I don't like to add chips because it means I have to remember how much I bought and figure that in. I know this is a bad habit and once I have more expertise at poker I hope to be able to drop it.

(2) I do like the medium raise with AQ, at least it seems to be working OK for me. The tables I play most people are pretty predictable. They will raise with AA, KK, QQ, and AK. Some people will limp-reraise with AA and KK. So when a raise doesn't come to me and I have AQ in a blind, I'm almost positive my hand is best right now. If someone does limp-reraise me I can get away from the hand right now. If I don't raise and somebody was trying a limp-reraise, I can lose a LOT when a Q comes on the flop and the hidden AA or KK busts me.

By medium raising, when an A or a Q comes on the flop I can bet strong and be pretty confident that I have the best hand (unless some lucky squib flopped 2 pair or a set). Say the flop comes Qxx. I can throw a $7 bet at a $9 pot with a big field and a bunch of mediocre players who love to call small bets but hate to call big ones: almost everybody will fold, probably one player will call, maybe with KQ, and we're heads up, I have the best hand, and the pot is already $23. Nice situation to be in.

Also, I have probably been too influenced by a guy who has a site called "Swim with the fish" about winning at no-fold-em hold-em. In a 6-way flop (or more), he points out, AQ has way more than a 1 in 6 chance of winning the hand. So theoretically, if you play it out a million times, jamming the pot preflop pays off. He's talking about limit rather than no-limit, but I still think it makes sense. If I'm going to win the pot even 1/3 of the time and I'm up against 5 people, I want us all to have three times as much in the middle to start with.

(3) I led a smallish amount hoping to get some calls before I popped all-in on the turn. I was not at all surprised to get re-raised on the flop, because my bet was small and I almost always bets the flop after I raise preflop. People who are attentive don't have much respect for my flop bets after preflop raises.

Also, with the nuts, I was actually hoping for as many callers as possible. If the board doesn't pair and the flush doesn't come, I am winning the hand, so the more callers the better, right? Or is this the wrong way of thinking about it?

At the time I went all-in on the flop, I was thinking it was the conservative play. I expected to push everybody off and just take down a medium-sized pot. Oops.

Do my answers to Al's really good questions make any sense? I don't know. I hope somebody will tell me.

K3nt...
1. I think that not keeping the max in your tables, over the long run, is going to hurt you. I've read lots of your posts, and am pretty sure you play like me, and if that's the case, we sit back, don't chase too much, and wait for the monster (kinda like what you thought you hit... )... I understand the money calculating thing, because I used to do it too, but think what will happen when you have the stone cold nuts, a bunch of fish dying to call, and you only have half the buyin to play w/... it definitely sucks...
2. I personally wouldn't have raised AQ... I understand your reasoning, but I think that you're chasing away most of the people you'll beat, and letting the people that have you beat stay in... Especially because you're in the SB, and have to bet out first... I understand your reasoning, but I wouldn't have done it w/ your position...
3. I play it about 50/50... sometimes slowplaying the nut straight... Sometimes betting out fearing the flush... Seems like whichever one I do doesn't seem to work out for me...

I think you win this hand 9 times out of 10, and got sucked out...
Hope that helps... MVP

Oh dear, sorry - didn't mean to come across as so critical - just interested in some of the decisions you made that were different to how I'd have played it (=picky!) Consider this post more of the same...

On (2) if your AQo raise is working well against the opposition you encounter, then obviously stick with it... my reasoning for not doing it is something along the lines of "AQo is unlikely to be winning if all the money goes in, so I don't want to create a situation where I have to pot commit myself trying to protect it" (which does just about make sense mathematically; and note doesn't apply to limit holdem). I'll shut up about this now - pre-flop play is within limits just a matter of personal preference and post-flop style anyway!

On (3), if you thought there was a good chance your small lead would result in your getting raised, then you played it fine.

The danger of letting in lots of callers is that they all fold if they miss the turn, but that you struggle to release your hand if they hit (the worst case being the board pairing) - because your hand is so strong, their implied odds are excellent. So I'd personally prefer to play fewer players, even if I sacrifice some EV-given-perfect-play. If that makes sense.

Al, no, I was glad to read your post! Not too critical at all. Just exactly what I was looking for.

I am always trying to think differently about the game. Learn learn learn. Thanks for your feedback. Be harsh if you want.

There's only one other way I can imagine playing this hand. If I can put the caller on a flush draw, I could flat call the flop reraise. Then if the turn doesn't go flush, I can go all-in at that point, but I can check-call a reasonable bet with my flush redraw if the flush does hit. Hopefully the flush draw folds if he only has 1 card left. Would this lower variation? Any ideas?

Kent,

In a small, limited buy-in game such as this I don't raise on the flop. I do bet it but then I smooth call the raise and go all-in on the turn when the 4d comes. Here's why:

You want to induce your opponents to make a mistake. If they are prepared to make a mistake then you want them to make the biggest mistake from the potpourii of mistakes that they are willing to make. When you get raised on the flop you have to suspect that a flush draw is present - esp with two callers. Ok, so lets look at your expectation in a couple of different cases:

(if I understood correctly - a call on the flop would have made there be $25.50 in the pot and you would have $31 left)

You go all-in for $31 and get two callers. @$118.50 in the pot. You are about a 54% favorite at this point getting almost 3:1 on your money if they both call ($87.50:$31 or 2.82:1). This gives you a positive expectation on the play of:
0.54 x $87.50 + 0.46 x -$31 = $32.99

The BB, who had the flush draw had a reasonable expectation that the LP player would call if he did seeing as he raised you a moment ago so if he figures in a call he is correct to call:
2.61:1 odds of hitting his hand
2.82:1 on his money
His expectation is:
0.2772 x $87.50 + 0.7228 x -$31 = $1.85

Late position with only 4 outs is wrong to call of course at 4.4:1 but hey - that's why we love these games right?

The problem of course is the BB who is not wrong to call. You can however manipulate him into being wrong by holding off till the turn. If you just call the LP raise there will be $25.50 in the pot and when the 4d falls you lead off for $31 all-in. Let's look at those numbers and see what happens to your expectation:

Now, with one card to come you go all-in for $31 and get two callers. @$118.50 in the pot. You are about a 71.36% favorite at this point getting almost 3:1 on your money if they both call ($87.50:$31 or 2.82:1). This gives you a positive expectation on the play of:
0.7136 x $87.50 + 0.2864 x -$31 = $53.56

The BB, who was correct to call before is now incorrect to call. His expectation now is:
0.1909 x $87.50 + 0.8091 x -$31 = -$8.38

TUP

Gregor,

Yes, the analysis does presume a rag on the turn - mostly because a rag did come on the turn. If the heart came on the turn, then you must be able to lay the hand down. Your idea that if the board paired or a heart came on the turn, he slowplayed himself out of the money is incorrect though. Think about it - the only way you can slowplay yourself out of a hand is if betting secures you the pot or drives players out now but waiting decreases your chance of winning the pot. Since both players called the flop - this criterion would not have been met. As a matter of fact, Sklansky writes that one of the requirements for slowplaying is, "You must be sure that you will drive other players out by showing aggression..." There is no way that Kent could have been sure - because they called.

I don't agree that the flush draw was incorrect to call but that would be based on player knowledge - my assumption that the LP player would tag along was based on a typical player response and it is not impossible that my analysis was affected by knowing with absolute certainty (due to Kent's post) that this player did in fact call.

Taking another look at the decision to smooth call the raise on the flop and our expectation if the draws got there on the turn: Let's now assume that a rag did not get there on the turn and instead a heart, a king or a ten came. This will occur 13 times out of the 45 unknown cards (yes I know that there are 47 unknown cards but if you are prepared to lay down if a heart comes then you must be assuming two hearts are out - therefore I will count those as known which will lower our odds slightly and should make the point even clearer as a result). So, 13 out of 45 times Kent will have to lay the hand down on the turn and is out the $3 that he smooth-called the raise with. I am assuming that you are not suggesting that he should have gone all-in on the flop originally instead of betting $3; betting $34 into a $7 pot would definately not be correct. 32 times out of 45, a blank will come on the turn and he can then go all-in (the pot is now $25.50 and an all-in bet is reasonable).

So - on those occasions when a rag falls our expectation increases $20.57 (as shown above in previous post) by waiting till the turn to go all-in. On those occasions when a rag does not fall you have the chance to get away from the hand with chips and money saved spends as good as money earned.

TUP