by Aisthesis » Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:52 pm
This is 6-max, right?
If so, take this for what it's worth (which may not be much): Given that range and the presumed fact that he'll fold to overcards, I think I'd call and bet out most flops except K-high and rags. Then take it from there with his reponse.
For example, if an A flops, he has TT-KK 19 times (only one QQ out there), AA 3 times, AK 12 times (if AQ is in there, this helps his A).
K-high is a bad flop for you, since he has AK 12 times, KK 3 times, and AA 6 times for 21 hands that he's going to play hard.
I there's an A AND a K, then he has AK 9 times, AA 3, KK 3 for a total of 15. QQ once, JJ 6, and TT 6 for a total of 13. So, I guess you might as well forget that one, too (although a bet of around $240 with the pot at $360 would still be profitable and might be worth considering).
Q-high you're obviously all about.
J-high: JJ 3 times, TT 6 times, AK 16 times for 25 losers for him.
T-high: TT 3 times, JJ 6 times (which he'll play aggressively), AK 16 times.
On all of these boards except those with a Q, I think you're going to have to lay down if he raises your bet (even though you'll sometimes be ahead of JJ or whatever). On the K-high board, I think you can just check-fold.
On rags, I think I like a check-raise to get the CB from AK. If he's going to immediately push TT-AA to a c-r, then I think you have to go ahead and call with that much in the pot and being 50-50 to win. If there's any way to sniff out the lower pairs vs. AA/KK, then that would be very advantageous, obviously (if there were any stack-depth left, a lot of players like this will be inclined to immediately push TT/JJ and simply flat call the c-r with KK/AA, which he's not laying down. But there's also probably not enough depth left for you to lay down either, although a mini-check-raise might allow it and might not be a bad play.