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Call this river bet with TP? - Live Poker Forums

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Call this river bet with TP?

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Call this river bet with TP?

Postby Mad Genius » Fri Jan 28, 2005 11:44 pm

Playing $2/4 NL on Stars, I get dealt [Jd][5d] in the BB. Loose player with a big stack min-raises to $8 in UTG+1. 3 more callers and I call $4 into a $36 pot to try to hit trip 5s, two pair, or a flush draw. Flop comes [Js][9d][4d]. This is pretty much the ideal flop for me. SB checks and I lead out for $20 into the $40 pot. Folded back to SB who calls. SB has $294 after the call. Turn is [3h] and SB checks. I check back.

Do you bet the turn, and if so, how much do you bet? The pot is $80 minus rake.

River brings an offsuit 6 and he suddenly leads for $80. He seemed pretty loose in general, although I don't think he was a complete calling station.

Do you call here?
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Postby iceman5 » Sat Jan 29, 2005 1:10 am

I wouldve folded preflop, but thats just me. I dont see a problem calling either.
I doubt I would bet the turn and Im definately not calling the river. You could actually be ahead and he may be betting some missed draw because you checked the turn, but Im not willing to find out in that situation.
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Postby kennyg » Sat Jan 29, 2005 1:30 am

I'm willing to put in a bet on the turn here to try and steal. I figure if you get called you're just building the pot for your flush draw anyway.. I'd probably bet $50 or $60 on the turn. (sounds scary when all you play is ..50/1.00 though ;-) )

As for the river..the only thing you're beating is a missed draw...so I'd have to let it go.
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Postby Mad Genius » Sat Jan 29, 2005 3:35 pm

I'm surprised that both of you think this is such an easy fold. My thinking here was that I'm either way ahead or way behind. Meaning he either slowplayed a monster (set, top two) or has a missed draw. But if you take a close look at his line, you'll see that he check-called a weak flop bet and then checked the turn. With 5 people in I doubt he would check J9 or a set on the flop, but if he did it would be only to checkraise, right? But since he was last to act and only I was in, it is conceivable to think that he is trying to slowplay his monster. Then he checks the turn, giving me infinite odds to draw if I'm on a draw. But again let's say that he was going for the checkraise on the turn and missed. Then, when a complete blank hits on the river, is he really going to bet pot into one opponent who's shown that he has a pretty weak hand? This would be a bizarre way to play a set. His play on no street indicates a set at all. Of course there are always people who play their sets as slow as possible, so obviously I expect to be up against a set some of the time, but other than that no other hand he can have that beats me would be making that river bet. I highly doubt the 6 helped him and if he just had AJ or KJ I'm most likely looking at a value bet of about $30. And I'm pretty sure I would have faced a bet on either the flop or the turn with AJ/KJ.

His play looked exactly like a missed draw. I thought he had [Kd][Qd] or [Kd][Td]. So I called. He showed [Qs][Ts] for the missed OESD and I took it down. I'm not trying to brag about a good call here. Maybe I made the wrong read and thus the wrong call. Is my above analysis flawed in any way? Comments would be appreciated.
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Postby iceman5 » Sat Jan 29, 2005 4:41 pm

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