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Can I fold bottom set here? ($50 FR) - Live Poker Forums

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Can I fold bottom set here? ($50 FR)

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Can I fold bottom set here? ($50 FR)

Postby Runner_Runner » Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:22 am

No special reads on Villian.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) from (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($128.70)
Button ($65.55)
SB ($119.10)
BB ($37.90)
Hero ($54.60)
UTG+1 ($88.80)
MP1 ($51.60)
MP2 ($43.50)
MP3 ($36.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6Image, 6Image.
Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50, MP3 calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.75) TImage, 6Image, KImage (3 players)
Hero bets $5, MP3 calls $5, Button calls $5.

Turn: ($21.75) TImage (3 players)
Hero bets $15, MP3 folds, Button raises to $40.5, Hero ???
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Postby AlexMR » Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:40 am

Why would you fold it? I mean, I would've think " I am f'cked" and call.

He had KK. Reload and move on. Without a read saying that villain only raises AA/KK and then it's tight post flop I am not folding a set. Hell, Imight not fold it even with the read. He could have AA, AK, AT,KK and TT. You beat three of those. Call and if he had KK or TT..well, better luck next time.

You call $35 to win $84. You need to win this about half the time in order to be profitable. I think in NL$50 you'll have the best hand way often than that..
[17:16] alitomr: http://micropenis.ws/forum/viewtopic.php?t=723
[17:19] mekosking: wow
[17:19] mekosking: i give that poof a week tops
[17:19] mekosking: before he snuffs it
[17:19] mekosking: I THINK THAT MAY BE NV
[17:20] mekosking: IN DISGUISE
[17:20] alitomr: LOLZ
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Re: Can I fold bottom set here? ($50 FR)

Postby WayToGo » Sat Oct 14, 2006 4:52 am

Taking shots, one at a time.
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Postby Alchemist » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:35 am

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Postby Allstar7 » Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:21 am

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Postby Zmej » Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:33 am

Easy AI. You 'll see lots of AT, JT type of hands here.
"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby Rhound50 » Sat Oct 14, 2006 5:22 pm

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

"From playing full tilt I wanna smash every garden gnome I see. That travelocity commercial puts me on instant tilt."
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Postby Henderson121 » Sat Oct 14, 2006 11:15 pm

10-6 beats him too..:P
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Postby k3nt » Sat Oct 14, 2006 11:28 pm

I don't agree that it's an easy all-in. What would villain play this way?

Most players at $50 NL FR are extremely predictable. "No special reads on Villain" = I will default to assuming he is one of the very predictable players.

Extremely predictable $50 NL players do not raise hands preflop with a T in them, with the exception of TT. Even on the button ... they just don't. This guy's range preflop is AA KK QQ JJ TT AK AQ ... probably 90% of the time. Maybe maybe maybe lower pocket pairs and AJs on very rare occasions. Suited connectors once in a blue moon.

In any case. This guy preflop raises and then flat calls a most-of-pot bet and a call on that flop. Looks to me like he's not scared of anything. QQ JJ AQ are just out. All that's left is AA AK KK TT.

The turn made all of those hands look much, much worse except KK and TT. You could easily have been betting any T to see where you stood on the flop, and now you're happy with your hand so you bet more. AK and AA are shitting themselves. And $50 NL players who are shitting themselves do not make big, committing raises.

The guy has KK 85% of the time, TT 3% of the time, and a totally donkily played AK or AA 10% of the time. KT say 1% and QT/JT/T9 another 1%.

I don't know that I would actually fold here. I would probably justify a call based on pot odds and all that good stuff. But it is the farthest thing from an easy push.
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Postby Zmej » Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:58 am

"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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Postby Runner_Runner » Sun Oct 15, 2006 10:41 am

Interesting take Kent. Good discussion here.

Anyways, I pushed and Villian showed me that I was drawing dead on the turn - TT. No way I was folding this.

So I reloaded, shook my head, and opened this up:

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Postby NorthView » Sun Oct 15, 2006 11:01 am

Freak hand, reload, keep calling in this spot.
Mon May 12, 2008 1:46 am
When I play a patient and relaxed game I win - that simple.

Mon May 12, 2008 10:55 pm
Seriously, fuck poker.
==================================================================

[21:03] NorthViewBTP: mac is a fellow mexican
[21:03] Mekosking: yup
[21:03] NorthViewBTP: you should support your bro
[21:03] Mekosking: therefore hes a fat worthless tsr obv
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Postby black_knight6 » Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:09 pm

If he has KK then good for him...all sorts of crap can make that play other than KK/KT
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Postby Eclipse86 » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:29 pm

instacall so fast
you will have him beat over 50% of the time here i am sure.
=)
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Postby adamh » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:54 pm

definately callllling.............this is what you were lookin for bingo bango bongo
mets better step it up
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