The setting:


Blinds are 300/600/1200 and stacks are ~$500.000

Gold open-limps in EP with [7s] and Doyle limps behind next to act with [8s], Esfandiari limps too and all the blinds play so 6 to the flop and pot is $8.000

Flop comes: [4s][Jd]

Everyone checks to Doyle, who bets $6.000 into the $8.000 pot. Folded around to Gold who flat calls.

Turn is the

Gold checks to Doyle, who bets $25.000 into the $20.000 pot. Gold gives a speach about how he said he was going to bluff etc and finally check/raises to $125.000. Doyle thinks for a while and then folds.


At first when I saw it I cringed and couldn't believe Doyle would fold there, but thinking about the hand from his perspective I am not so sure. Here's how I think it looks to him:

- Gold obviously has the flush, of this Doyle can be pretty sure, his play is 100% consistent with a flush.

- Gold is showing a huge amount of strength by his attempt to project weakness. It is obvious that he wants Doyle to call.

- There is ~$470.000 left at risk, Doyle has put in about $30.000 so far and has $470.000 left. If he calls he will probably face a huge bet on the river unless the board pairs or another spade comes (I think this is a raise/fold situation).

- There is no way Doyle can improve his hand or make the nuts. One of them is drawing dead.

- What flush can Jamie have? Well Doyle has the and which rules out a lot of the medium connectors that Doyle can beat, also, Golds seems awfully sure he has the best hand so a really small flush isn't quite as likely. He was also in early position, and although Gold would probably play even the smallest SC's from there it should probably rule out hands like [4s]. Basically his hands can probably be reduced to:
QJs, QTs, Q9s, J9s, 97s and 96s, all of which fit Golds play and most of which have Doyle drawing dead.

- The argument against QJs, J9s and most of all QTs is that Gold would probably often bet the flop having flopped such a 'monster'. If I had to guess on one specific hand for him to have, it would probably be Q9s or J9s.


One argument for calling (as opposed to folding or raising), and the only one IMO, is to be able to use position on the river. If the board pairs or brings another Ace, Doyle might be able to get Jamie off his hand since he would be able to represent ither the [Qs] or 44 for a full house. Still, that's a pretty huge play and against a notoriously hard-to-bluff player it doesn't seem that great.



So I guess I made a case for Doyle mucking. The most obvious (and my initial) case for not doing so is of course "OMG I HAVE A FLUSH GET IT IN AGAINST THIS SUPERFISH AND FISTPUMP!!". But then again, Doyles edge on this joker is pretty huge (and he has position) so there's always the "There will be a better spot..."-argument.

Thanks for this post, I don't watch the show.

I think this is a terrible fold.

[9s] has a gutshot plus the flush draw -- that's a pretty big hand. Any hand with is pair + fd so that's another monster. I would think Gold would bet those monsters ... or at least (given his dumb-ass persona) start talking earlier in the hand if he had one of them. (I'm assuming he didn't ... again I didn't watch it.)

So really, the only likely hand that beats you is the paired with the or a worse spade.

I don't see why [4s] or [4s] or whatever are impossible.

Gold is a moron and would think his flush is good, no matter how small it is, and would also think that by talking like this he can convince Doyle that he's bluffing.


[quote]QJs, QTs, Q9s, J9s, 97s and 96s[quote]

QTs is impossible because Doyle has the .



Of course I have never faced a decision for half a million dollars ... but for an amount that's within my bankroll I'm calling here and stacking off against Gold every time.

He read jamie as strong (right read), and went with his read...don't forget that he's not just risking what it is to call, he's risking his entire stack because he's worried about facing a huge river bet too.

However, vs Gold, this is a SNAP CALL.

Let me ask you this:

If we assume Gold had [9s] instead, would we think it was a bad fold by Doyle?

Seriously. Would you consider posting a thread called "Awful fold by Doyle" then? We're all a bit result oriented I think.



I don't think hands like 65s are 'impossible', but I think they are less likely than higher flushes. I'm also not at all sure that Gold would bet something like J9s on the flop, it's a good chance he would, but far from a sure thing. After all, 6 people saw the flop, it's a bit of an action flop and his position is bad. A bet on this flop would usually be either a strong hand or a bluff, not something inbetween.

From what I have seen of Gold's play if he had , , , he either leads or check raises with those hands.

So, counting from the button, seat 1 posts 300, seat 2 posts 600, seat 3 posts 1200, and seat 4 is first to act PF, right?

YES

And seat 3 is effectively the BB and is last to act.