I'm 20/15, fairly aggro, have been 3betting villain once (he folded) a couple of orbits ago.

Villain is 18/15/3.5 over 300 hands. I don't know his calling-3bet-range, but he steals blinds a lot.

Push or fold on the flop?

Game #4498477354: Hold'em NL ($1/$2) - 2007/04/23 - 21:55:25 (CET)
Table "Temptation" Seat 2 is the button.
Seat 1: CAP99 ($442.50 in chips)
Seat 2: Messaa ($209.50 in chips)
Seat 3: REDEYEZ ($491.50 in chips)
Seat 4: ($214.25 in chips)
Seat 5: stormwind ($181 in chips)
Seat 6: 06flocko sits out
REDEYEZ: posts small blind $1
: posts big blind $2
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to t
stormwind: folds
CAP99: folds
Messaa: raises to $8
REDEYEZ: folds
Mrt: raises to $24
Messaa: calls $16
----- FLOP -----
t: bets $35
Messaa: raises to $90
Mr?

folds

Ok, so everybody says fold. I pushed

At first the push might look quiet bad, but when I'm putting him on a range and pokerstoving it, it doesnt look so bad.

I think villain would raise any flush draw, open ended str8 draws, combos of one pair and gut shot draws, any sets and any two pair and any overpair. Adjusting this range for the PF action leaves us with him pushing

, , , 66+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s

Pokerstoving this range gives the following results:

Board: 9h 7h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.326% 44.45% 01.88% 25081 1061.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 53.674% 51.79% 01.88% 29227 1061.00 { 66+, AhKh, AhJh, KhQh, QhJh, JhTh, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s }

I need to win 36 % to push (please correct my math if it's wrong). Given the assumed range the push is good.

If we assume he only raises with 66+ we get almost the same results:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec

Board: 9h 7h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.513% 40.24% 02.27% 15935 900.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 57.487% 55.21% 02.27% 21865 900.00 { 66+ }

Even if we remove If we remove TT, the push is (barley) + EV:

Board: 9h 7h 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.472% 33.87% 02.61% 11399 877.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 63.528% 60.92% 02.61% 20506 877.50 { JJ+, 99-66 }

To summarise me thoughs: I think a huge part of villains range is different draws and one pair+draws, and all the money already in the pot makes it OK to push. If you also factor in the random donkraise bluffs some people like to do in reraised pots, it seems even better.

So what range of hands do you guys put him on? Do you think he only raises with AA,KK, 99, 66, and 88?

The only think I think is problematic is that he minraised me. I think that makes a set more likely than the rest of his range because most people would just push any draw.

Anyway, he called with a set of nines and I didn't live up to my screen name