flop 3-bet bluff on paired board ($200NL 6-max)

[ua1176]

$200NL 6-max @ FT

i raise AJo to $7 UTG+1. villain calls from BB. he's 18/18 over 150 hands and seems competent.

flop: QQT ........WITH A SPADE DRAW. MY BAD.
pot: $15

check, i bet $12. he C/MR's to $24, and i 3-bet to $72. thoughts?

jon

[Semillon]

[Triple B]

[ua1176]

if he pushes i strongly consider calling.
if he calls i strongly consider shoving a non-[s] turn.

[DoctorHandles]

I'm fine with the 3-bet on the flop (I might prefer just calling his CR though), but I think shoving the turn is bad and calling the shove is REALLY bad. $72 is a good, beefy raise. I really doubt he's folding much on the turn or shoving without the goods, and since the flops rainbow we can't be ahead of ATs or some crap here.

The more I think about it, if you wanna put a move on him I think just calling the flop is fine. You can still spike a A, Q, or maybe J on the turn to take the lead, and if the turn comes 3 you can consider calling another barrel and show massive strength and take it down if he checks river.

Granted I wouldn't be able to think that far this fast during the hand, but that line sounds a lot more believable and sends a lot more strength on a QQTr IMO.

[Triple B]

As Doc said, I would MUCH prefer calling his min and making a move on the turn (or river). You have position, use it. It also looks much stronger than your line. Your line looks like you want to play chicken with him.

Calling the shove seems really bad. Do you have a read that says he will not play a monster fast? I'm not sure why you are shoving a non-spade turn sine the flop is rainbow... Plus, if he calls your re-raise you have to assume he has AT, KJ, TT or a Q at the least.

[ua1176]

[DoctorHandles]

[ua1176]

i edited my last post to make it a little bit clearer. i see how it could get confusing?

[Triple B]

Ua...putting him on a range is all well and good but sometimes people do random stuff and you should put more emphasis on his betting pattern than a preflop range.

If villain will respect your 3-bet and fold your line is fine, but I still think you look stronger by calling and raising turn or calling turn and betting river if checked to. Also you need to give up if he calls or shoves IMO.

[ua1176]

[DoctorHandles]

Triple B and I don't respect his minraise at all, we just think calling is better than 3-betting the flop.

I would guess 3-betting = +EV, whereas calling = (+EV)X, where X>1.

[Triple B]