I do this regularly and I am sure I make money doing it. If the pot is $150 and he bets say $30, I will make it $120 or so which means he only has to fold like 40% of the time for me to make a profit. I would guesstimate they fold over 60% of the time.


Pot is $84 on the river so here I need him to fold roughly half the time. On the other hand, it is so obvious what I am representing that I think it is worth the risk.

Seat 1: HERO [Js] ($491.45 in chips)
Seat 2: Savantage ($394.00 in chips)
Seat 4: i got what ($502.10 in chips)
Seat 8: georg14 ($394.90 in chips)

PRE-FLOP
georg14 calls $4, HERO bets $15, Savantage folds, i got what folds, georg14 calls $11.

FLOP board cards [5c][Jh]
georg14 checks, HERO bets $25, georg14 calls $25.

TURN board cards [5c][Jh][7c]
georg14 checks, HERO checks.

RIVER board cards [5c][Jh][7c][4c]
georg14 bets $30, HERO bets $120, georg14 folds.

SHOWDOWN
HERO wins $232.