$5/$10 NL 6 max at Tribeca...Max buy in is $750

The table is a tad aggressive preflop, but looks normal post flop.

MP raises to $50. I call in the SB with [Kd]. The BB also call. This is the first hand Ive seen him play int he 5 rounds or so that Ive been here.

I have $760....BB has $700...MP has us covered.

Pot $150. Flop [4s][8s]. I lead $100. BB calls as does MP.

Pot $450. Turn . Whats my play?

I had to edit the orignal post. The numbers were right but the suits of each card was wrong. I doubt it makes much of a difference in the responses though.

I open pushed $600 into the $450 pot and got called by the BB. He had [Ts].

MP folded what I would guess was QQ.

BB had what? 14 outs? He missed them and I won a nice healthy pot.

I lose value here probably 1/2 the time or more by pushing, but as you can see, I WILL get called by hands that I have beat at times and that makes up for the times I lose value. Ive said before that the old phrase "you'll only get called by hands that beat you" is very wrong.

The problem I see with betting $300 is that if one of them calls and the flush hits the river, I have to make a guess as to whether they have it or not and I probably have to call anyway since the pot is so big.

I like to play in a way to make my decisions easier and I think I did it here.

It is a lot different if there are 2 spades on the flop instead of 3

I vote for the push. If I bet say 350 he calls and the flush cards come. I would be to pissed.

You think you are ahead, more than one caller and the money is good for just one pair already.

There was never 3 spades on the flop. The original post had a flop of [4s][8c] when it was really [4s][8s].

When Ice posted his thoughts, I totallly agreed. But I decided to try to do my best Sklansky impersonation. Math gurus please help.

Say MP has JJ (which is better for MP than QQ). BB has QT. Stick all that into two dimes and Ice is a 73.81% favorite (BB has 21.4% chance).

Okay two scenarios:

1) POOOOOSH. Ice pushes, MP folds, and BB calls like it happened in the hand. At that point we are talking about just the $600 in profit Ice can win by pushing versus value betting. What's already in the pot is a sunk cost and shouldn't influence this decision.

So Ice said the guy calls about 1/2 the time. So Ice wins 600 about 1/2 the time. However, he's a 73.8% favorite and the QT guy will suck out sometimes. So that's 600 * .5 * .7381 = $221.4 EV

2) RAISE DECENT-- Ice puts in a $300 raise. He's going to call a river push if a flush hits (even though he'll hate it). Assume QT guy calls, and MP guy might call with his overpair.

Say MP will call 50% of the time with his overpair. So that's a potential profit of $450 (300 from BB who calls every time and 300/2 from MP who only calls 1/2 the time). Okay on that potential profit, Ice wins 73.8% fo the time for EV of $332. But Ice is going to call when the flush hits on the river. It will hit 21.4%. So he'll lose 300*21.4%= (64.2). That's a net EV of $332 less 64.2 = $267.8 EV

So Raising has a net EV of 267.8 while pushing has a net EV of 221.4. The added difference being that the guy with the overpair calls some.

Other notes: If MP with overpair only calls 33% of the time, it's about a push.
If in scenario 1, he'll call a push 66% of the time, then the EV for scenario 1 is 295 and better. Wow that 16% really adds up. So I guess, you really need a feel for if the guy will call the push. Great than 50% you should push?

Enough math for today