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NFD+OC - Any problems with push here? (50 FR) - Live Poker Forums

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NFD+OC - Any problems with push here? (50 FR)

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NFD+OC - Any problems with push here? (50 FR)

Postby MTPaid » Thu Nov 15, 2007 7:57 pm

This one is probably a simple answer type one.
Button is slightly loose and aggressive (31/13)

I usually don't like to do this on paired boards, but I felt an aggressive player on the button had a large enough range that it might be +EV to push here.

Turns out he had a big hand and insta-called. But I'm kinda still liking my play here despite the results because of fold equity + pot size. (I had 11 outs on the flop and even picked up 2 more on the turn)

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($29.50)
UTG+1 ($11.15)
MP1 ($24.30)
MP2 ($55.00)
Hero ($51.15)
BTN ($75.95)
SB ($44.75)
BB ($56.95)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is CO [Ah][7h]
UTG calls $0.5 ($29.00), UTG+1 calls $0.5 ($10.65), MP1 calls $0.5 ($23.80), 1 fold, Hero calls $0.5 ($50.65), BTN raises to $2.5 ($73.45), 2 folds, UTG folds ($29.00), UTG+1 calls $2 ($8.65), MP1 folds ($23.80), Hero calls $2 ($48.65)
ImageImage 31.60% (EV = $0.42)
ImageImage 68.40% (EV = $3.83)

Flop: [6s][6h][Th] ($9.25, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks ($8.65), Hero checks ($48.65), BTN bets $4.5 ($68.95), UTG+1 folds ($8.65), Hero goes all-in $48.65 ($0.00), BTN calls $44.15 ($24.80)
ImageImage 40.80% (EV = -$5.18)
ImageImage 59.20% (EV = $14.43)

Turn: [7s] ($106.55, 2 players)
ImageImage 29.50% (EV = $31.43)
ImageImage 70.50% (EV = $75.12)

River: [4d] ($106.55, 2 players)
ImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)
ImageImage 100.00% (EV = $106.55)

Final Pot: $106.55
Hero shows: [Ah][7h]
BTN shows: [Qh][Qd]

BTN wins $103.55 ( won +$52.4 )
UTG lost -$0.50
UTG+1 lost -$2.50
MP1 lost -$0.50
Hero lost -$51.15
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Postby bdon22 » Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:10 pm

Last edited by bdon22 on Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Danhdan » Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:13 pm

"Million dollar play, ten cent finish."

"My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives."

"Laugh and the world stares at you; cry, and the world stares at you."
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Postby MTPaid » Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:44 pm

I really don't like c/r'ing on the turn. More money usually means less fold equity + I'm a bigger dog usually.

Couple of factors here:
1 - He's OTB and aggressive. Good chance he doesn't have much of a hand and I get him to fold a better Ace or middle pocket pair?
2 - I will play trips or a set like this, especially after showing a hand like this. See:
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($51.40)
Hero ($43.50)
MP1 ($51.85)
MP2 ($49.95)
MP3 ($41.15)
CO ($65.10)
BTN ($45.65)
SB ($26.90)
BB ($7.70)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1 [Jc][Jh]
1 fold, Hero calls $0.5 ($43.00), 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.5 ($40.65), CO raises to $3 ($62.10), 3 folds, Hero calls $2.5 ($40.50), MP3 folds ($40.65)
ImageImage 54.00% (EV = $0.92)
ImageImage 46.00% (EV = $0.33)

Flop: [5s][Js][7s] ($7.25, 2 players)
Hero checks ($40.50), CO bets $4.5 ($57.60), Hero goes all-in $40.5 ($0.00), CO calls $36 ($21.60)
ImageImage 34.40% (EV = -$10.14)
ImageImage 65.60% (EV = $17.39)

Turn: [Th] ($88.25, 2 players)
ImageImage 22.70% (EV = $20.03)
ImageImage 77.30% (EV = $68.22)

River: [9d] ($88.25, 2 players)
ImageImage 0.00% (EV = $0.00)
ImageImage 100.00% (EV = $88.25)

Final Pot: $88.25
Hero shows: [Jc][Jh]
CO shows: [Qs][As]

CO wins $85.25 ( won +$41.75 )
Hero lost -$43.50
MP3 lost -$0.50

OK, bad example considering the result I guess, but anyway.....

As a 40% dog + image considerations in the original hand, do I really mind the call all that much?
Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
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