Maybe this has already been talked about , if that is the case I am sorry.

I work in a casino ( 10 years ) and have a lot of guests who play a progression game on the roulette. Some of them are playing this game for years. I have seen a lot of them come and go and some are still there.

They play this progression game ( la bouchere ) on a certain group of numbers. Some do it on black and red but not the real players of this system because they would hit the maximum too soon and bust.
For example they play 4 six lines ( 24 numbers of the 37 ) and if it doesn't hit they double. This could mount up to very large numbers if they keep missing but there are many ways to cover those numbers and they have a big bankroll to cover it.
It is always funny to see these nerds ( mostly are ) sweating and going extremely nervous when they have a few thousand Euro's on the table to win only 10.

I thought about such a like system for poker.
I just concentrate on pairs 33 to 99. Normally I would limp with these from any position. You are likely to flop a set 7.5-1 times.
My idea is if I don't hit a set within 8 times I start raising with them one bet. So when I do hit my set I get a better pot for them.
I am bound to hit one and I am not in danger of exceeding any maximum's

So lets's say in $100 NL I normally pay $1 for a limp. I now raise to $2. I normally pay a raise of 3BB with these low pairs exception on 33 and 44 EP.
So after 7 times not hitting a set I can also call up to 6 BB for a raise.

I have not figured out what to do after I hit when I am in doubling or tripling mode because you gotta play it for your stack I think even if the boards looks scary.

Thoughts anyone. ??

Tom..

This type of betting progression is ----------EV. It is a , which has a more negative EV than conventional betting in +HA casino games because of the maximum betting limits. These "systems" will always be around, and they are all worse than flat betting the minimum.

Think of it this way for poker: Instead of making -EV plays based upon some random occurrance of N (lack of hitting a set, which is 7.5 to 1 against anyways), every time you lose 2 stacks you move up in limits. This turns proper bankroll management on its head. You should not do it.

Remember that each successive event is independant of the one before it. Do not invest any time or thought entertaining the "streaks" and anticipating the outcome of the next event, which is not dependant on the prior event at all. You might consider a primer on probability. Check out www.wizardofodds.com.

it's the martingale system...and it sucks for blackjack, too