i've read in several places about chris ferguson turning $1 into $20K. supposedly, he utilized a shortstack strategy (devised by jim rose) along with a bankroll management strategy (buy in for 5% of roll, cash out at 10%).

so, i decided to give this a shot just for kicks. the jim rose shortstack strategy is simple: push AA-QQ & AK, fold everything else.

i played 2500 hands at party $25NL and lost $76. i bought in for $5 and cashed out at $10.

when i saw the flop for free in the BB, i check/folded on every street unless i hit top pair or better, in which case i pushed.

i've compiled a summary of the experiment here:


this strategy is not affected in any way by decision making. there are no decisions to make. so, it seems like i ought to be able to analyze the strategy based on these 2500 hands. let me explain:

i folded ~2250 hands PF. of the remaining 250, i folded half to a f/t/r bet after checking the BB. i received AA-QQ or AK about once every 35 hands, as expected. therefore, i would expect to fold exactly this much over any stretch of hands.

this leaves me with 125 hands to make money. it costs about $100 to see 2500 hands. i made about $25 of that back in the ~75 hands i played from the blinds (and didn't fold). i actually lost ~$1 in the ~50 hands that i pushed from outside the blinds. (SB W/R = -.32BB/100; BB W/R = -.18BB/100)

it FELT like i ran bad. only putting $ in with AA-QQ, AK, and top pair or better, i expected to win almost every time i pushed. but here's what the numbers show:

when i pushed and got called, i was a dog about as often as i was a favorite. i won as a dog about as often as i lost as a favorite. but i lost more overall when i was dog than i won overall as a favorite. so i probably ran bad, but the question is: how bad? that is, how likely is it that i'd run significantly better on average (enough to make up the cost of the blinds)? this is where i need help with the analysis.

1) if you push 50 times with AA-QQ & AK, how likely is it that you'll be a dog half of the times you get called?

2) how much would you expect to win in 50 pushes of AA-QQ. AK?

3) what are optimal SB and BB winrates at party $25 NL?


to turn my $76 loss into breakeven or better in the next 2500 hands, i would need to either:
- run/play a lot better from the blinds, OR
- run a lot better on my 50 pushes, OR
- both

my initial take is that this is not a strategy that is capable of winning $. in the article i've read that was written by jim rose he speaks of using this method at live tables full of maniacs. even the $25 NL players seem to know to fold anything less than AK to a push. clearly chris ferguson has the skill to crush small NL games online. but i'm starting to doubt that he did it THIS way. i've heard him discussing his bankroll management strategy, but nothing i've seen or heard directly from chris ferguson confirms that he actually used this jim rose push or fold strategy...

so, did i just run really bad? or does anyone see a way that this strategy could turn a profit?

Even if i would know, i wouldn't help you. Poker is about decision making.


UGH..

(not 5%) Ughhh...... *cough*

Put JJ and TT in the mix and prolly 88 and 99 from LP. There is a whole journal about this stuff.

How harsh this might sound, i hope you loose all your poker (recreational) money.

Nothing personal.

Does anyone on this forum use the alias "DayOfLight" on Party Poker?

Welcome the the Forums.

Nice Spreadsheet--It musta took some time analyzing to get all that info.


I was at 4.5 PTBB over 3000 hands with a similiar slightly different strategy ( I added JJ and 1010 and AQ and AJ from the button and one off if not raised PF) I also bought in for a slightly higher percentage ($15 at the Party NL 50's) I was only a dog when called 25% of the time when called, which could be from pushing more hands. After the second or third uncalled push I would go back to AA, KK QQ and AK and you wouldn't believe what they would call with the next time I pushed.

I don't see how you could be a dog 50% of the time only playing AA-QQ & AK at the Party 25's unless you were really unlucky.

While I don't have my PT number in front of me, your SB and BB numbers look pretty solid. I tried this in March for about 2 weeks until I couldn't take the boredom anymore. But my SB and BB numbers sucked because I had tried to play them straight up with a small stack instead of push/fold postflop strategy. I probably could have done better from the blinds if I had adjusted to push/fold post flop, but at the time it felt like that was the only real poker I was playing

I ran a simulation in pokerstove. If you are called with the best 10% of allhands (AA-88, A9s+, KTs etc.) you are a 66-34 favorite.
This means in 50 pushes you will win 66% of the time and lose 34% of the time. 50*0,66*5$=165$ win and 50*0,34*-5$ 85$ loss to pushes, so you gain 80$.
This makes you a marginal winner if you lose 75$ from the blinds.

MHflush

Interesting analysis...well done...but there's a HUGE thread on this topic already...should've posted in there.

Which you can do in the other thread. No one really uses this since you're giving up buckets of EV...if it works at all, it's just a super simple way to make a little money (while making good bonus rates I'd imagine...12 tables would be pretty easy).