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Small draw gets a bit bigger [NL 200 5-max] - Live Poker Forums

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Small draw gets a bit bigger [NL 200 5-max]

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Small draw gets a bit bigger [NL 200 5-max]

Postby Stoneburg » Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:33 pm

I'm in BB with [4h][3h].

UTG limps, CO follows, Button folds and SB completes. I check, so we are 4 to the flop.

Flop: [Kh][2s][Qh]

SB checks, I bet $4 (half pot), everyone calls.

Turn is the [Ac].

SB checks, I check and now UTG bets $25 into the $24 pot. CO folds but SB cold calls.

Hero does what?
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Postby johnnie_naked » Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:51 pm

Stack sizes?
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Postby Stoneburg » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:14 pm

The caller started with $300, the bettor with $200 and I have them covered.
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Postby chuckwhoolery » Mon Feb 18, 2008 7:15 pm

fold...odds are your fd is no good and even if it is you only have one card left so:
best case: 12 outs or roughly 25% to win
worst case: 3 outs right around 7% to win

not enough for me to invest 25$
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Postby Xaston » Mon Feb 18, 2008 8:53 pm

Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby johnnie_naked » Mon Feb 18, 2008 9:57 pm

Well lets think about possible river action.

If you hit your 5, I would say ur probably good, very unlikely chopping, and would get it in.

But 9 of your outs that give you a flush may or may not be good (though I think he prob has two pair here more than not). If he does have 2pair, we are losing the A and 2 of hearts as outs cause they pair the board.

So we're drawing to 10 outs max and don't even know if 7 of the heart outs are good so I'm assuming we check call a heart river?

3 non heart fives win us $200 on a 6% shot but not always and the rest win us a PSB (~$50) on the river ~14% - 1 or 2% point the times he has a higher flush draw.

So at best, we're basically calling $25 getting about 7-1 impled odds on an 11-1 shot.

I fold.
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Postby iwanturcoin » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:00 pm

i don't really get the flop bet ...why 1/2 pot into 3 players with a K and Q on board, do you think you have any fold equity?
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Postby Triple B » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:51 pm

Villain: Why?
Villain: How?
Me: I had a feeling
Villian: Sit in you cretin
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Postby Stoneburg » Wed Feb 20, 2008 5:48 am

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