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I'm such a fish (NL50 FR) - Live Poker Forums

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I'm such a fish (NL50 FR)

Hand analysis. Post your trouble hands here

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I'm such a fish (NL50 FR)

Postby MTPaid » Thu Nov 15, 2007 7:41 pm

The read:
CO (48/10/1.2 - 39% WTSD) is a super-fish. In a previous hand I limped early with 88, he limped SB. Flop came 2J6 rainbow. I bet pot and he was only caller. Turn was T. He won the pot with T8o. I have no doubt he's paying me if I hit the flush and he could be betting with TP any kicker.

The Button I have no read on.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
7 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($71.75)
UTG+1 ($47.25)
MP ($49.30)
CO ($43.95)
BTN ($48.50)
SB ($49.50)
Hero ($51.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 7 players) Hero is BB [Td][8d]
UTG raises to $2 ($69.75), 2 folds, CO calls $2 ($41.95), BTN calls $2 ($46.50), SB calls $1.75 ($47.50), Hero calls $1.5 ($49.00)

Flop: [7d][5h][Qd] ($10, 5 players)
SB checks ($47.50), Hero checks ($49.00), UTG checks ($69.75), CO bets $4 ($37.95), BTN calls $4 ($42.50), SB folds ($47.50), Hero calls $4 ($45.00), UTG folds ($69.75)

Turn: [Th] ($22, 3 players)
Hero checks ($45.00), CO bets $12 ($25.95), BTN calls $12 ($30.50)

So I'm getting about 4-1 to call with a pair + FD, BUT I don't know if OTB is calling with a bigger flush. Like I said though, CO will probably pay off with his stack if I hit. Is it worth it here? Should I even consider an attempt to push the Button out of the hand now?
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Postby bdon22 » Thu Nov 15, 2007 8:01 pm

Pushing is +EV mainly because of FE. I just don't see much of that here given the fact that he is leading both streets. Do you really think he's going to lay down KQ? You're getting like 4:1 here which could be a good price for you because you might also win if you hit a T or 8 and there's no guarantee that anyone has a bigger FD than you. I call and fold if I brick the river.
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Postby k3nt » Fri Nov 16, 2007 9:56 am

I hate calling preflop raises with speculative hands out of position. Save this type of hand until you're in position.

That said, I'm not folding this so I guess I'm a fish too. I don't think you have any FE against such a donkey CO, but you have to think that any T, 8, or diamond will most of the time give you the best hand.
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Postby T-Rod » Fri Nov 16, 2007 10:12 am

I think you can argue that a pf call is justifed because of so many other callers. However, K3nt's point about waiting for position is spot on.

I call this kind of hand a "bleeder." It's the kind of hand where you just bleed and bleed away chips here and there. I hate them.

The problem is I don't see how you can force everyone off the pot because its too big and there are too many people (i.e., no FE).

So I call with odds and fold without and usually grumble when I miss.
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Postby MTPaid » Fri Nov 16, 2007 12:53 pm

With 3 other callers already in, how could you not call after already paying the BB and closing the action?

I didn't mean I could get the CO to fold with a push, but would it be in my best interest to try to push the Button out who may have a better flush draw. Seems like a possible likely hand the way he's played it so far. That would give me 12 outs (if he had the flush draw) vs CO or maybe even 10 if CO has QT.

What I meant was, is there enough money in the pot to justify a push if it gets a bigger flush draw out? Like I said though, I'm pretty sure CO will pay off anyway if the flush hits, but that doesn't mean much if Button has a bigger flush.

Also, if the T doesn't hit the turn, I'm more likely to just fold with the possibility flush may not be best.
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Postby k3nt » Fri Nov 16, 2007 4:49 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Fri Nov 16, 2007 5:09 pm

Statler: I wonder if there really is life on other planets?
Waldorf: What do you care? You don't have a life on this planet.
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Postby MTPaid » Fri Nov 16, 2007 10:44 pm

I'm such a fish part 2:
Slightly similar hand tonight, except that I'm pretty sure PFRer has an overpair. Don't have enough hands to get a full read, but he's been aggressive in the hands he's played first few orbits around. Fairly certain he has a big pair. I know, I know, marginal preflop, but I'm gettin 2-1 and he has slighty over a full stack.


$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at

Stacks:
UTG ($34.55)
UTG+1 ($56.95)
Hero ($66.55)
MP2 ($48.20)
CO ($20.35)
BTN ($28.70)
SB ($57.15)
BB ($85.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is MP1 [Tc][Jc]
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.5 ($56.45), Hero calls $0.5 ($66.05), MP2 calls $0.5 ($47.70), 2 folds, SB raises to $2.5 ($54.40), 1 fold, UTG+1 folds ($56.45), Hero calls $2 ($64.05), MP2 calls $2 ($45.70)

Flop: [3c][5c][8d] ($8.5, 3 players)
SB bets $8 ($46.65), Hero calls $8 ($56.05), 1 fold

Turn: [Th] ($24.5, 2 players)
SB bets $18 ($28.65)


Now, if I missed the turn, I fold obviously because he bet enough that I'm not getting enough implied odds to chase the river, BUT the beautiful thing is that he's probably not thinking I have 14 outs and should think that he could correctly pay off my flush which is a mistake if he knew how many outs I had, correct?
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Postby Danhdan » Sat Nov 17, 2007 5:35 pm

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