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The one that got away! Play these sevens? - Live Poker Forums

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The one that got away! Play these sevens?

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The one that got away! Play these sevens?

Postby rdale » Sat Mar 26, 2005 12:36 am

So I have sevens in the second seat $86.20, and limp. The small blind $33.70 raises a standard amount and the BB $61.55 comes over the top for $8. I'm pretty sure he has AA or KK (based on his previous play of big A and other pairs) I'm unsure if the small blind will reraise all in. I'm also a little worried about hitting my seven and it not being good, should there be pretty much any over card on the board. I also didn't think I had implied odds to call although it would have been a monster pot, I think the BB would have had to have had at least $80 for me to make the call a good one, regardless of results. He tended to over play top pair top kicker, and I'm sure he would give up a stack with AA to a set.

My questions are:
When do you make this call to that size over bet? What criteria has to be in place for you to play for the set stack size and position wise? Given the flop texture below, how confident would you have been in middle set? What would your approach had been had the sevens been played?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed)

UTG+1 ($17.95)
Hero ($86.20)
MP2 ($13.75)
MP3 ($18.10)
CO ($45)
Button ($19.40)
SB ($33.70)
BB ($61.55)
UTG ($50.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with [7s], [7d].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB raises to $2, BB raises to $8, UTG+1 calls $7.50, Hero folds, MP2 calls $7.50, CO folds, SB calls $6.

Flop: ($33) [Kc], [7c], [2h] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $11.5, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $5.75 (All-In), SB calls $11.50.

Turn: ($61.75) [3d] (3 players, 1 all-in)
SB checks, BB bets $15, SB calls $14.20 (All-In).

River: ($90.95) [Tc] (3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $90.95
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Postby Rhound50 » Sat Mar 26, 2005 12:43 am

This is a tough call, it always sucks to fold and then flop your set. I agree with your fold here, for two reasons first, you are right on the border of the 10x rule for calling a raise with a small PP this on top of the fact that the SB isshort stacked and is calling 1/4 of his stack here and that adds to the chance that he is going to push all in and then you are going to have to fold. You really cant worry about set over set here. If you do call and flop your set, you are going to have the best hand 95% of the time or more.
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Postby Jeffm351 » Sat Mar 26, 2005 8:39 am

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Postby iceman5 » Sat Mar 26, 2005 8:53 am

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Postby MVPSPORTS » Sat Mar 26, 2005 10:05 am

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Postby k3nt » Sat Mar 26, 2005 2:26 pm

Agree with MVP. I folded a pair of 3s that became QUADS preflop yesterday. Second time I've folded quads preflop in the last month. Gotta let it go and move on because it was the right play at the time.
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Postby rdale » Sat Mar 26, 2005 2:32 pm

I think what would have been the deciding factor on whether to play to the over bet, is if the small blind had more money on the table. Small bind hadn't been playing all in poker, and I think I could have got a peek for $8 if he had closer to $50-$60, I would have taken my chances that he doesn't push creating $8 of my dead money in the pot.

I really feel that if he was going to call his last 11.5 on the flop he should have shoved it in preflop, Not that it would change any sort of outcome for him, SB had QQ, BB AA and the other guy had some screwy suited cards.
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Postby Rhound50 » Sat Mar 26, 2005 9:56 pm

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

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Postby MVPSPORTS » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:19 pm

Rhound... Sorry bout the percentages, but I prefaced it by saying they were probably wrong :D ... One question though... isn't the 13% hitrate a little misleading by the fact that he may be raising preflop w/ KK, and would've hit trips over trips...
Anyways, to your 10x rule, that means, in a 1/2 NL game, where you each have $200, you would call a $18 preflop raise w/ a midpair? Doesn't that seem a little high? And, the more money you have, the harder it becomes for me to understand (ie... in a 2/4 NL game, where you each have $400, you would call a $40 preflop raise w/ 77?)... It may just be me, but that seems steep... According to your (more accurate) numbers, you would lose 6 out of 7 of these, or $240 to not hit... And there have been plenty of times that when I do hit, I can't get action...
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Postby k3nt » Sun Mar 27, 2005 12:29 pm

I think I agree with MVP again. My sense of the math is that 10x is an absolute minimum stack that your opponent and yourself should have. You'll do better to be more conservative than this, especially if you're sure it's going to be heads-up.

Also, don't use the rule to justify a call -- use it to justify a fold! At 25c/50c NL, don't say "Yes that guy just raised to $10 preflop but he has $100 behind him so I'm calling." Say instead "That guy just raised to $3 preflop but he only has 20 bucks at the table so I'm folding."
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Postby Rhound50 » Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:40 pm

As Kent said this 10x rule is not an absolute, it is a guideline to follow and should be adjusted according to the game, players in the hand, stack sizes of all players in the hand, and the stregnth of the players in the hand.

To answer your ditect question, there is a chance that I will call a $18 preflop raise with a middle pair if both of us have $200 in front of us. The same of a $40 preflop raise in a 2/4 game with both of us having $400 behind. Lets run through the math here. I miss my flop six times and lose $240 in those hands. The seventh time I flop a set I am guarenteed to to get his $40 and only have to win $200 more from my opponant the one time I hit my set. Since he raised 10x preflop, he has to like his hand, if he has AA or KK. I am likely to take his whole stack. Yes there is a chance of set over set, but there chances are really small. In the odds section there is a very long post on set over set.
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Sun Mar 27, 2005 2:46 pm

Rhound... I guess that's what makes you a Semipro and me a broke fool... I just don't have the balls to call that...
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Postby Yogadude » Sun Mar 27, 2005 6:43 pm

77 in EP to a raise and a re-raise? I fold this every time. I think the 10X only applies to a single raiser..77 in a raise and re-raised pot could be asking for trouble. I simply dont believe calling a raise and a re-raise without a premium hand.

BTW..if you call a raise with this hand you are actually hoping your opponent has aces! If you hit your set and he dosent you will get paid off beacuse most people have trouble laying down an overpair with a K 7 2 flop....

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Postby rdale » Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:17 am

I think I like bigger implied odds than most people.

I prefer 15:1 implied to start calling raises suited connectors and 10:1 is where small pairs start for me in general, unless I think the guy raises too much and I might wind up with the best hand and position post flop. Ideally I would prefer 20:1 implied on most of these type of hands but that just doesn't occur enough to be reasonable.

Position and current opponent changes my needs on implied odds a lot with me willing to accept a higher variance situation at worse implied odds from late position where I may or may not need to hit to win. It comes down to are they loose aggressive preflop and weak passive post flop. I see that type of player at the 1/2 level of 6 max at GC a bunch.
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