The poker gods saw fit to put me through a nice variance test last week. I had a 9 buyin downswing after I tried some HU and then forgot how to play TAG poker. That's 9 straight down.

That was followed by 5 buyins straight up. All at Tribeca. For those who don't know, that's way, WAY more variance than I usually experience. I'm a TAG.

Here's what I learned.

At Tribeca, you are going to be outdrawn to the absolute maximum that is mathematically possible because they are so donkish that they never fold a FD, even to a push. No problem, right? We're poker players playing within our BR so we can expect that. WRONG.

At most sites, when you play, your hands hold up more than they should mathematically because people make proper folds. For example, say you have TPTK and he has a FD. He should outdraw you about 1 in 3 times. But being a BTPr, you bet, give improper odds, and many fold. So instead of losing 1 in 3 times, you lose like 1 in 8 and that becomes your "feeling" on how often you get outdrawn. That extra winnings from the 1 in 8 vs the 1 in 3 are also a big part of your win rate (a hidden part).

Then you move to Tribeca where players act like its a tournament and get all in with marginal hands, and it feels like you are being outdrawn all the time because you are used to draws feeling like they hit 1 in 8 when mathmatically its 1 in 3. That hidden part of your win rate evaporates.

How is this important? Well, if you are going to be outrdrawn more than usual, you have way less wiggle room for mistakes or stupid bluffs. So, if you are getting into big pots with semi-strong hands you'll be crushed long-term because your monsters will be outdrawn to the mathmatical maximum and if you lose too much by getting into marginal situations, you can't make it up. The bulk of my downturn was from having TPGK instead of TPTK. It's that fine of a line.

Tim's Rules:
1) Give respect though unwarranted,
2) Only play in big pots of your choosing,
3) Replace that lost "hidden" portion of your win rate by focusing on controlling losses rather than maximizing wins. This is done by being tight, following rules 1 & 2, and naturally letting your monsters get paid off which Tribeca-donks will do much more than others.

if its gotten to this point, why not just change sites. A TAG like yourself would viking rape the 200NL FR at the dise.