by Aisthesis » Sun Mar 16, 2008 4:22 pm
lol, 15 might look a bit bluffy to some on a draw-heavy board.
At the lower stakes, I was betting something like that typically but felt that on draw-heavy boards, it doesn't get as much credit. So, I bumped it to more like 18.
In substance, I don't really think it matters because both adequately protect your hand (open-enders and flushes aren't going away in any case, and weaker draws shouldn't be calling).
I guess it's really an advantage to bet 15, though, if 44 is going to call you down sometimes.
The river bet also looks kind of vague imo. It's kind of like you're repping maybe JT, but on closer look, it's really either too high for that (not completely easy to call) or too low (putting villain likely on a Q and making a bluff-type bet would be close to full pot).
Turn bet seems pretty standard but could also be a bit higher with all the draws out there. I'd be more inclined to read that as KQ or QT than as AQ or QJ--since the latter are more solid but still have to worry about the flush or JT getting there. KQ or QT might be exercising a little pot control by not betting 40+.
On the flop, I honestly do rather like a 2/3 pot bet in HU pots even on drawy boards, and 2/3 pot is 15.67, so that's pretty close.
Thinking about your bet sizes, while I wouldn't have made it to the river with 44 (unless your flop bet was out of character), I think it's actually the river bet that makes me wonder the most. When I ask myself what hand would bet that way, my spontaneous answer is JT, but then when I look at it, that's kind of a strange JT bet for my taste, as noted above.