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Is this call -EV? [100NL 6 Max] - Live Poker Forums

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Is this call -EV? [100NL 6 Max]

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Is this call -EV? [100NL 6 Max]

Postby LuparFiend » Wed May 17, 2006 1:02 pm

Over at B2B. 100NL 6 max. Villain has a huge stack. As I am waiting for the button to pass me so I can post the blind villain loses a big (200 Euro) pot. He lost with a Queen high flush (with Q4s) to an Ace high Flush. So he got knocked down from 445 to 345.

My read on him is that he is a little bit of a maniac, and he may very well be on tilt.

I have a full stack (100) and post in the CO my 1 Euro. Villain is UTG with 345 Euro.

Villain Raises to 3.50.
Folded to me, and I look down and see [Kc] [Kh].
I raise it up to 12.00 and only villain calls.
Pot is 25.50
Flop is [Jd] - [3d] - [Th]
Villain checks
I raise 17.00
Villain min-raises to 34.00
I decide to call and plan on pushing anything on the turn. I put him on maybe a flush draw or a small pocket pair. Though I do think he is on tilt, and could have anything. Pot is now at 93.50 and I have 53.00 left.
Turn is [Ac]
An ugly card, but I don't think it helped him.
He leads out and puts me all-in very very quickly.
I'm pretty sure I'm ahead, and with how fast he pushed all-in, I decided to call.
He shows [Kd] [6d] for a flush draw.
No club on river, and pot is shipped my way.

What do you think? Is this kind of call -EV over the long run? I got berated in chat afterwords by a few people telling me that was a terrible call :twisted:

Maybe they'll add me to thier donkey list :lol:
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Postby k3nt » Wed May 17, 2006 1:34 pm

Normally a mincheckraise followed by a push = look out with your kings unimproved. But I agree, he's already shown the strength prior to the turn so the ace likely didn't help him. Any normal hand would be scared of that ace, at least a little bit. Considering your read is that he's on tilt, plus the fast bet, you gotta make the call.

p.s. you might get better advice in the future not including the results. It's real easy for me to say "make the call" now that I know what he had....
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Postby Zmej » Wed May 17, 2006 2:36 pm

"#3 pencils and quadrille pads."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when asked what CAD tools he used to design the Cray I supercomputer; he also recommended using the back side of the pages so that the grid lines were not so dominant.

"Interesting - I use a Mac to help me design the next Cray."
- Seymoure Cray (1925-1996) when he was told that Apple Inc. had recently bought a Cray supercomputer to help them design the next Mac.
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