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iceman5 the investor / trader

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iceman5 the investor / trader

Postby iceman5 » Fri Jul 20, 2007 5:40 pm

In the past couple months as Ive slowed down my online poker playing, Ive had much more time to take an active interest in trading the stock market again. Ive made quite a few adjustments in my retirement accounts and Ive started actively trading my stock / option account again.

Here is a graph of my brokerage account vs the SP500 in the past 6 weeks or so since I started graphing the daily progress.

This represents a 7.3% gain for my account vs a 0.6% gain for the SP500. Go me !!!

I think alot of you young guys with more money on your hands than you should have at this young an age should start learning about investing. There are lots of better places than here to learn about the markets, but it would be fun to discuss different strategies and certain stocks, asset allocations and other investment topics with people we are already friendly with. Feel free to ask me any questions you want and hopefully we will have some interesting discussing here.

If not, thats fine, I can just use this thread to brag that Im awesome....or at least Im "running hot".
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Postby iceman5 » Fri Jul 20, 2007 6:03 pm

By the way, there was a thread not too long ago about online brokers. Im seriously considering switching to "thinkorswim".
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Postby Xaston » Fri Jul 20, 2007 6:25 pm

Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself.
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Postby Beavis68 » Fri Jul 20, 2007 7:04 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Fri Jul 20, 2007 7:26 pm

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Postby Beavis68 » Fri Jul 20, 2007 7:48 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Fri Jul 20, 2007 8:09 pm

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Postby WayToGo » Sun Jul 22, 2007 5:59 am

Taking shots, one at a time.
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Postby Johnny Hughes » Sun Jul 22, 2007 9:22 am

I have always put ALL my bankroll in higher risk mutual funds. The standard model is to put half or your age in bonds and CDs. Being a gambler has really worked out for me.

I have it all in two funds, Fidelity Contra and Berman Neuberger Mid-Cap Growth. The first is up 12.5% year to date and the Mid-Cap is up 20.5% year to date. I have had nearly all my money in Fidelity Contra for several years. I make about 16 per cent per year average. This is more action each day than I ever play poker for but I don't pay too much attention. When the market is going up, I watch and check some and add the winnings in my head. On a bad day, like Friday, I wait until it is all over to look.

Most of this is luck. Of the fifty or so choices I could get into, Fidelity Contra has beat them all for the last five years. This year, even up 12 per cent, many others are beating Contra.

If I were younger, I would open a Mutual Fund for poker players. I would have 80 stocks in my fund. These stocks would come from the top ten holdings of several Fidelity funds. They would do my research. I would piggyback Fidelity. They only put twenty per cent or so in their top ten, therefore their exposure to any one stock is not that large. Their biggies, Google, Exxon, etc, I'd hold larger.

Everybody is having a big year. If you want to know what stocks to buy and hold, copy Fidelity.
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Postby pokerzen » Sun Jul 22, 2007 1:24 pm

I'm just going to wait until my BR is big enough and put it all on one shot of Roulette. Investing-schminvesting.

Seriously though ... good thread ... watching and learning right now. Please feel free to expound further on personal strategies and tips.

tx
<Big_Leon> start with the RAZZ tourney?
<pokerzen1> when did the razz tourney start?
<Big_Leon> starts in 2 minutes
<Big_Leon> just drew seats
<pokerzen1> too late then
<pokerzen1> damn damn damn
<Big_Leon> no, it's not too late gogogogogo
<pokerzen1> what's the tourney number?
<Big_Leon> 55852225
<Big_Leon> password is - irunbad i think
<Big_Leon> irunbad
<pokerzen1> made it :)
<pokerzen1> okay now how do you play razz?
<Big_Leon> i have no idea
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Postby antneye » Sun Jul 22, 2007 3:49 pm

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Postby Johnny Hughes » Sun Jul 22, 2007 4:03 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Mon Jul 23, 2007 8:50 am

Naked Put....

Here is an option trade I made on Friday. I sold 2 naked puts on the SP500 index with an Aug expiration and a stirke price of 154. Symbol is SYHTX

Options are very complictaed so let me give a quick basic lesson.

There are Call options and PUT options

When you BUY a CALL option, you are buying the option of buying 100 shares of stock at a predetermined price sometime in the future. In this case, I SOLD the PUT option. Ill get to that in a minute.

BUY a CALL option...gives you the option of BUYING a stock at a predetermined price at a later date.
BUY a PUT option....gives you the option of SELLING a stock at a predetermined price at a later date (even though you dont own the stock right now)
SELL a Call option....obliges you to SELL a stock at a predetermined price at a later date (even though you may not own the stock right now)
SELL a PUT option....obliges you to buy a stock at a predetermined price at a later date.

Now you dont necessarily have to go thru with the final act (of buying or selling the stock). You can buy or sell the option back before it expires and it closes out the trade at a profit or loss.

As I said this can be very complicated. I could never cover all aspects of option trading in one post. This is the ultimate of basic lessons.

Here is my trade in depth...

When the market closed Thur, Google and Micorsoft reported disappointing earnings. The market was going to open much lower on Friday.

The SP500 tracking stock (SPY) was at 155.03. It was going to open lower. No doubt in my mind. But it will also bounce back. Earnings news on a couple stocks cause people to over react and the market will shrug it off as long as a bunch of stocks dont follw with bad earnings. Thats not exepected at all. Earnings are very good this quarter.

The SP500 also doenst have alot of variance because its a basket of 500 stocks. A 1-3% swing in a month is normal. Not much more.

I entered an limit order to SELL 2 AUG 154 PUT options on SPY at 2.5

1) Im selling the put so I am obligated to buy 200 shares of SPY at 154 no matter how much its selling for at Aug expiration (which is the 3rd Fri of the month)

2) Each option contract is 100 shares of stock

3) The price 2.5 is really $250 so I get paid $500 up front if the trade goes thru

4) I say "if it goes thru" because the option is selling for 1.8 right now. I entered a limit order so the trade only goes thru if the price rises to 2.5. This seems strange but since Im SELLING the option, I want it to go up. It WILL go up because the market is going to open lower and PUTs go up when a stock goes down. I dont know if the option will go up THAT much though. Thats a 38.8% rise.

OK, if youre not confused yet.....

The market opened down as expected but not down very much. The option opened at 2.0 I could sell it at 2.0 and get paid $200 each but I held my ground. Within an hour the market sank more and my order went thru at 2.5. I instantly have $500 minus commission in my account. I dont have to put up any money to make this trade. They pay me $500.

Here is my profit potential.

On expiration (Aug 17th), if SPY is above 154 (which I expect it will be), I keep the full $500. If its bewlo 154, I either have to buy back the options or buy 200 shares of SPY at 154 even if SPY is trading at 150 or any other price. Since I took in 2.5 per contract, my breakeven point is 151.5 If SPY trades at 151.5 on expiration, I will break even. below that I lose money. Between 151.5 and 154, I make money. Over 154, I make the max profit.

I can buy back the option at any point if I want to close out the trade. If at expiration SPY is below 154, I can either buy it back or actually buy 200 shares of SPY but that would cost me over $30K. That may or may not be a good move, but thats to decide later.

The beauty of this trade is that the market has an upward bias. When I decided to make this trade SPY was at 155.03. It has to be below 151.5 in 4 weeks for me to lose money. So it has to drop 2.2% or more for me to lose money. The SP500 doesnt drop that much is a month very often. It SPY goes nowhere, I make money. if it goes up I make money. If it goes down a tad, I make money. I only lose if it drops alot. And in this case, it doesnt "take money to make money". I put up nothing in advance to make this trade (except for margin collatoral that I wasnt going to use anyway).

As I write this, SPY is at exactly 154.

Questions?
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Postby emmasdad » Mon Jul 23, 2007 9:28 am

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Postby iceman5 » Mon Jul 23, 2007 9:45 am

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