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If You Have An Out, You Have A Winner! - Live Poker Forums

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If You Have An Out, You Have A Winner!

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Postby MTPaid » Sun Aug 28, 2005 5:56 pm

$10+1 SNG

Went out with [As][Kc] in the SB when I moved all-in vs the BB who calls and turns over pocket Aces for the 2nd time in 4 hands. Just brutal!!


Result: 5th place
-$11

SNG Results since I started using PokerCharts:
-$121
-In the Money 4 out of 14.
1 1st Place finish.
1 2nd Place finish.
2 3rd Place finishes.
4 4th Place finishes.
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Postby MTPaid » Sun Aug 28, 2005 10:52 pm

Two positive $2/4 sessions in a row. This one due mostly to a single HUGE hand.

Session Stats: 36 hands 13.89% VP$IP +$47 Total +32.64 BB/100 5.56% PFR 4 AF

HAND #20
-[9c][9d] in the BB. 1 limper, a raise in the CO, SB calls, and I call. 4 to the flop.
Flop: [9s][2h][Td] ($16 in pot)
My set is probably the best hand unless the raiser has pocket 10's. I plan to check raise the original raiser and push out the straight draws. Problem is, it gets checked around. Good news is that I'm pretty sure my 9's are best and raiser has AK. Anybody with an overpair would have bet here.
Turn: [Ad] ($16 in pot)
I think this card actually helps me, except for the fact that it puts a flush draw on the board, I still think I'm best, but it may have paired 1 or 2 opponents. SB bets, I raise because I want to push out straight and flush draws at this point. Limper cold calls, but I'm not too concerned about him because of these numbers....
(82Hands/79.27VP$IP/26.83PFR/57.58WTSD)
But then they all end up calling. Still think I have the best hand, but 2 people may have caught that Ace w/ a decent kicker. Maybe even an AT which is fine.
River: [3c] ($48 in pot)
No harm done at all. Pretty sure it's mine, but can I get any more money out of them? I bet, the guy with the fabulous stats raises, everyone calls and I 3 bet it. Everyone calls and mucks their hand as I take it down.
Result: +$69 Wow! There were no made draws out there and since nobody bet the flop I can be over 90% sure I am best, but what do you think they all had?

Final Results:

Bankroll: $254.50
Profit/Loss -$527 in Ring games since I started using Poker Charts.
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Postby MTPaid » Mon Aug 29, 2005 4:50 pm

Another short, small winning session at the $2/4 tables. This is called a winning streak. I'm still not really happy about it though because almost every pot won was lucky. Don't get me wrong, I raised w/ premium hands preflop and ended up heads up, which is exactly what you want in these situations, but these type of hands should not need luck to win or suckout on somebody else every time they come up (especially vs. the BB). The 2 key hands are below.

Session Stats: 42 hands 19.05% VP$IP +$21.50 Total +12.8 BB/100 9.52% PFR 1.8 AF

HAND #11
-[Qs][Qd] in SB. Folded to me. Easy raise, right? BB calls.
Flop: [5s][4s][7s] ($8 in pot)
No way! It's probably a better flop for him than me, but I'm not giving up Queens to the BB. I do have a spade draw as well. I bet, he raises, I re-raise, and he calls. He might have me right now, but I'm too stubborn to admit it as a possibility because it happens too often.
Turn: [4h] ($20 in pot)
Not a good card for me, but probably not horrible. After I bet out again and he raises, I figure I probably need the flush here to win when I call.
River: [Js] ($36 in pot)
Yeah, baby! I sucked out w/ pocket Queens in a heads up pot against the BB. Sounds wrong, doesn't it? I bet, he just calls, and I take it.
Result: +$20 Never and easy hand.

HAND #18
-[Ad][Ks] UG. I raise and pray I don't get any callers. It folds around to the BB who re-raises. I cap it.
Flop: [Ts][Qd][8d] ($17 in pot)
He bets, I raise, he re-raises, I call. What is it with these Big Blinds?
Turn: [7s] ($29 in pot)
I know I'm beat now when he bets out, but I know that if I hit the Jack on the river he's going to pay me off and make it worth it. If not I'm folding. I call.
River: [Js] ($37 in pot)
There it is. I know he wasn't playing a backdoor flush draw this hard so when he bets, I raise him and he pays me off.
Result: +$24.50 Afterward he tells me that I cracked his Aces. Once again I suck out on the BB w/ a premium hand.

Final Results:
(These are PokerCharts #'s. PokerTracker numbers are slightly better.)
Bankroll: $276
Profit/Loss -$505.50 in Ring games since I started using Poker Charts.
Win Rate: -$24.29/hr
BB/HR: -7.99
ROI: -18.79
BB/100: -1.59 (Playing $2/4 w/ PT)
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Postby EscapePlan9 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:41 pm

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Postby EscapePlan9 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:52 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:03 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:04 pm

Finished out the day w/ a $5 satellite and a short half hour $2/4 session. The $2/4 was one of the tighest, most aggressive games I have ever played in. Nobody had a VP$IP higher than 25% and most people had an AF over 2. Most hands were raised and frequentely re-raised before the flop.

In the satellite I was dealt only 3 or 4 playable hands as I watched people going all-in w/ any 2 cards. Ku, A5u.....good enough for them. I went out w/ JJ UG when the button showed me pocket Kings after the flop came all low cards.

I saw 1 player defeat another player in back-to-back hands w/ quads. The less fortunate player was slightly upset at this. Especially the 2nd hand in a row which was running quads. Even more strange, I would lose to running quads in the $2/4 game as well. 2 running quads in less than 100 hands. I see some strange things at this site. I also saw a T7u knock off pocket Aces.

Result: 33rd place out of 58
-$5.50

MT Tourny Results since I started using PokerCharts:
-$121
-Win Rate: -$5.55/hr
-ROI: -65.41%
-In the Money 3 out of 16.

I think I need to be more aggressive. I'm usually close to being blinded off before I know it while I see people willing to go in with anything knocking off better hands right and left.

Here's an illustration of how aggressive the $2/4 game was. The only player w/ higher than a 20% VP$IP had a PFR % of 21. He constantly tried to steal my blinds (Big and Small)so the one time I defend this is what happened.

HAND #30
-[As][Qh] in the SB. MP raise (27.66 VP$IP/21.28 PFR after 30 hands up to this point) which he had been doing way too often. Now I have been accused before and maybe rightfully so, of being too aggressive as well, but I was fighting back this time. I re-raised when it came to me, he capped, and we saw the flop heads up.
Flop: [4d][Js][Ts] ($18 in pot)
I have a gutshot straight draw and a backdoor flush along w/ 2 overcards. Plus I think if I need to show him that I can't be pushed around so I bet out. He only calls.
Turn: [9d] ($22 in pot)
Now my straight draw is gone, but I have an open-ended straight draw. I bet out again because I still think he has nothing and I think he will fold when played back at, but he raises. I call.
River: [8h] ($38 in pot)
I bet, he calls and then tells me that I busted his set of Jacks.
Result: +$22 I don't know if I should believe him or not since I've seen him be this aggressive on every hand he played. Should I have given him more respect or is this just indicitive of almost every hand I seem to get into where I seem to catch the frequent bluffer on one of his few big hands?

HAND #32
-[9d][9h] in MP. It is folded to me and I rasie and everyone folds to the BB. Guess who? Tables are turned. He thinks I'm mustling his blinds now so he calls.
Flop: [Kd][Kh][3h] ($9 in pot)
This time when I bet out he goes for the check-raise, which I've also seen him do a few times before so I'm not buying it. I 3 bet it, but once again he caps it.
Turn: [2s] ($25 in pot)
This time he checks and folds to my bet.
Result: +$12 Now this makes me feel that my prior read on him was correct. Should I be giving these people more respect when they come back over the top of me when we are heads up and I have a strong hand? It just happens far to frequently to be believable. Or is this the nature of online poker and I should give them that respect.

Session Stats: 47 hands 8.51% VP$IP +$12 Total +4.26 BB/100 8.51% PFR 1.75 AF

Random Notes:
-99 has now netted me more money than any other hand at the $2/4 level. It is 4th in terms of BB/100. KK has probably been a little better to me overall, but 99 has been 2nd best. Other top hands are AA, QJs, and AKu.
-I am now on a modest 5 session winning streak for barely over $100. Where as before I thought I was losing due mostly to bad luck while making mostly good decisions, now I seem to be winning due to some really good luck while making good decisions. I would think that when I make good decisions I wouldn't need the luck to be an overall winner in most cases, but I seem to always be up against very strong hands, even against weaker players, and that disturbs me.

Final Results:
(These are PokerCharts #'s. PokerTracker numbers are slightly better.)
Bankroll: $278
Profit/Loss -$497.50 in Ring games since I started using Poker Charts.
Win Rate: -$23.25/hr
BB/HR: -7.71
ROI: -17.7
Avg Return: -$21.63
BB/100: -1.55 (Playing $2/4 w/ PT)
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Postby MTPaid » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:41 pm

Played in 2 Multi-table tournaments today. One for $5 and one I had a free ticket to. I probably should have saved the ticket for another time as I wasn't really able to pay attention after a long first tournament.

Result:
2nd Place out of 66
121st Place out of 234
+$37.50

MT Tourny Results since I started using PokerCharts:
-$83.50
-Win Rate: -$3.29/hr
-ROI: -43.82%
-In the Money 4 out of 18.
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Postby MTPaid » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:07 pm

Haven't been posting but I've been playing mostly small tournaments over the past week. Tonight I was in a $10+1 MT tourny.....

2nd hand in I get AA. I make a small raise. Two all-in's behind me. Easy money, right? I'm overjoyed to be up against AKu and KK. Flop has a J and a 10. Turn brings the Q and I have my quickest exit ever. Last 3 tourny's I've played I've gone out on JJ vs TT, AA vs KK and AK, and JJ vs T9. All out of the money. What a week.
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Postby MTPaid » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:13 pm

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD! 2 minutes later I tie that mark going out on the second hand of a SNG with AK suited when flopping a K and someone else hit their set of 10's. Time to cash out and take a LONG break.
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Postby MTPaid » Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:21 am

So I took a small break and came back to play 3 tournaments today. I finally realized something about online poker. Evidently it is a requirement that an Ace come out on the board. All 3 SNG's I went out on hands where I was a HUGE favorite either before or after the flop. My SNG statistics are starting to look dismal and here is why:

SNG #1: 3 people left. Chip leader and myself have fairly equal stacks. He has me covered by about $100. 3rd place is about to be blinded out. I get KK on the Button. I raise and catch a re-raise by the chip leader. 3 people and I have KK. I have to move all-in here even if 3rd place is down to his last round of chips. I get called by AQ suited and I'm happy to see that I'm a 3 to 1 favorite. Of course you know what happens. Ace on the flop and I get 3rd place money.

SNG #2: 4 people left and I go all-in in CO w/ TT. 2nd stack, who has me slightly covered calls with A8 offsuit. I say my good-bye's before the flop because I know the Ace is coming, which it does.

SNG #3: This time I am shortstacked in a tough $10+1 SNG. 6 people left and everyone is playing well. BB with K4 suited. SB, a slightly aggressive player, raises my blinds 2.5x when it is checked to him. He doesn't need a great hand to do this and I feel that my hand might be better than his and I have to defend my blinds with the small stack. I move all-in and he turns over A5 unsuited. I'm behind, but hit a 4 on the flop. I was a dog before the flop, but after the turn, I am more than 3 to 1 to win. Of course, river is an Ace and I'm gone again.

In this last SNG I also saw someone unlucky enough to get pocket Kings 2x and lose to A2 and 55. Sometimes you just don't know what to do when you're pretty sure almost everything you do is correct, but you can't get a hand to go the way it's supposed to. The bankroll is winding down and I probably can't afford this too much longer. I turned a $450 bankroll into $1200 last month, but have now knocked it down to a little above $200 with this recent run of luck. This has happened all just by playing $2/4 and $10+1 buy-in tournaments. I may have made a few bad decisions, but I still believe over 95% of them to be correct when I replay the hands. I constantly see that I am losing about half the hands that I am a big (2 to 1 or more) favorite to win. What to do now?
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Postby MTPaid » Tue Sep 13, 2005 6:55 pm

I've got that sick feeling in my gut. Not because I lost a lot of money today, but just because I know that no matter what I do, I can't win. This thread is my personal bitch-fest. Now I've been mostly telling you about bad beats over the past few posts. Today I played a MT tourny. I played 4 hands. Here they are below, 2 of them in depth. You tell me what you think.

Hand #1 w/ blinds $10/$20 and a full chip stack of $1500 I limp in w/ [Qd][Jd] in MP. LP raises to $105. One limper calls before me and since I finish the betting I decide to call. Flop is no help and I am out of there. It wasn't a great decision to play those cards, but I knew I was done with it if I didn't catch the flop so no great loss.

Hand #2. (Story of MyPoker Life Part I or The Obligatory Ace)
No-limit Texas Hold'em $5+$1 (real money), #1,263,495,958
**Easy Money $100 added Multi Table Tournament, 13 Sep 2005 8:13 PM ET



Seat 1: Texstarjim_ ($2,480 in chips)
Seat 2: PayMeDaMoney ($1,345 in chips)
Seat 3: cc4203x ($1,100 in chips)
Seat 4: kensin555 ($1,045 in chips)
Seat 5: Higgscraft ($1,320 in chips)
Seat 6: John1933Boy ($1,420 in chips)
Seat 7: MrMallet ($1,460 in chips)
Seat 8: Kenosha38 ($1,260 in chips)
Seat 9: Magnum-force ($1,370 in chips)
Seat 10: wplunar ($2,200 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
cc4203x posts blind ($10), kensin555 posts blind ($20).

PRE-FLOP
Higgscraft folds, John1933Boy folds, MrMallet calls $20, Kenosha38 bets $70, Magnum-force folds, wplunar folds, Texstarjim_ folds, PayMeDaMoney bets $250, cc4203x calls $240, kensin555 folds, MrMallet folds, Kenosha38 calls $180.

FLOP [Jd][9s][2c]
cc4203x bets $850 and is all-in, Kenosha38 calls $850, PayMeDaMoney calls $850.

I did not call right away here. The original all-in bet had me worried. I think I would have been re-raised with Pocket J's or better. Pocket 9's are a possibility, but so is AJ suited. In the end it is a 50/50 proposition between the 2 hands I think and I am getting 3 to 1 to call here. The call was from an EXTREMELY LOOSE and BAD player who calls any bet when he has at least 1 high card and any post flop bets when he has at least a pair. The only hand I am worried about from him is J9. After this thought process is complete I hit the call button.

TURN [4s]
Kenosha38 checks, PayMeDaMoney checks.

I could go all-in, but just in case I was wrong before, I still have a chip and a chair.

RIVER [Ah]
Kenosha38 checks, PayMeDaMoney checks.

SHOWDOWN
Kenosha38 shows [8s][8c]
PayMeDaMoney shows [Qs][Qc]
cc4203x shows [Ad][Js]
cc4203x wins $3,340.



SUMMARY
Dealer: PayMeDaMoney
Pot: $3,340
Texstarjim_, loses $0
PayMeDaMoney, loses $1,100
cc4203x, bets $1,100, collects $3,340, net $2,240
kensin555, loses $20
Higgscraft, loses $0
John1933Boy, loses $0
MrMallet, loses $20
Kenosha38, loses $1,100
Magnum-force, loses $0
wplunar, loses $0


I was ABSOLUTELY CORRECT in my reads. I had a HUGE lead all the way through, but once again was sucked out on in a big hand.

Hand #3:
Very next hand I have pocket 7's and have to go all-in. I get called by KT offsuit and K8 suited. I feel good because 2 Kings are already out. Of course you know that a 3rd King hits on the flop. However, since nothing can be easy, I hit the 7 on the turn to triple up and stay alive.

Hand #4: (The Story of My Poker Life Part II or The Day My Computer Learned to Fly)
This one just takes the cake.
No-limit Texas Hold'em $5+$1 (real money), #1,263,578,004
**Easy Money $100 added Multi Table Tournament, 13 Sep 2005 8:38 PM ET



Seat 2: PayMeDaMoney ($475 in chips)
Seat 3: RiverQween ($730 in chips)
Seat 4: Bee37 ($2,927 in chips)
Seat 5: ahole37 ($3,224 in chips)
Seat 6: poker_pete9 ($4,859 in chips)
Seat 7: zenoeval ($3,745 in chips)
Seat 8: kelsling ($540 in chips)
Seat 9: frstdraw ($1,650 in chips)
Seat 10: MZSTOW ($1,705 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
frstdraw posts blind ($50), MZSTOW posts blind ($100).

PRE-FLOP
PayMeDaMoney bets $475 and is all-in, RiverQween folds, Bee37 folds, ahole37 calls $475, poker_pete9 folds, zenoeval folds, kelsling folds, frstdraw folds, MZSTOW folds.

FLOP [Jc][6c][4d]


TURN [3h]


RIVER [6d]


SHOWDOWN
PayMeDaMoney shows [Kd][Ks]
ahole37 shows [6s][Kc]
ahole37 wins $1,100.



SUMMARY
Dealer: kelsling
Pot: $1,100
PayMeDaMoney, loses $475
RiverQween, loses $0
Bee37, loses $0
ahole37, bets $475, collects $1,100, net $625
poker_pete9, loses $0
zenoeval, loses $0
kelsling, loses $0
frstdraw, loses $50
MZSTOW, loses $100

Not even SOOTED. I am a 94% favorite before the flop. A 94% favorite!!!
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Postby MTPaid » Wed Sep 14, 2005 3:26 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:44 pm

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Postby EscapePlan9 » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:54 pm

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