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bubble decision

Postby cholo loco » Thu Mar 17, 2005 11:40 pm

bubble in 25k guratntee at empire

im in the bb with A5 and get a free play with one early pos limper.
flop comes A79 and i hate everything about my situation

blinds are 600-1200 and i have around 5000 and my opponent has around 15000

there is 33 people left and the top 30 get 190 bucks the buy in was 50

does anyone check fold this?
other options are lead out and fold to a raise but then if you get just called your in a pickle
or check call which is gonna make things very ambiguos too. if i move in im only getting called by better hands so i ruled that out

bad spot and the money in the middle is substantial to me but i hate my hand so im in a quandry
matty
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Fri Mar 18, 2005 12:17 am

I know you only had a third of his stack, but where were you in relation to others? Did you have a middle stack, or were you short? If you were short, I would probably move in... If he has a high ace, he would've raised preflop... If he folds, you pick up 1800 chips which you desperately need. Maybe he'll call to knock out another player with a middle pair hoping your chasing... If you win the allin, it won't be too crippling for him... I would put him allin and hope for the best, unless there were a lot of people w/ less chips, and maybe you could backdoor your way into the money... I'm sure most of the people around here aren't into the "getting in the money" theory, but money's money, right...

Just my 2 cents... MVP
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Postby TightWad » Fri Mar 18, 2005 10:39 am

I'd actually go for a check-raise all-in; or if he checks, all-in on the turn. The alternative would be to just bet all-in. I'm not getting away from this hand, even though it's clearly not an ideal situation. Here's why I like the check-raise:

If you bet all-in, he's pretty likely to fold anything you have beaten; thus, you win a smallish pot, but it's still a decent addition to your short stack. So this isn't bad.

If you check-raise all-in, you face the same risk as betting all-in (that he has you beaten), but you may also catch him taking a stab with something like KQ and win a larger pot. If he has something like 88 or TT, he'll probably be committed to calling your check-raise, but having a chance to double through as a big-time favorite is certainly not a bad thing either!

The point is that a check-raise gives you more of a chance to win a decent pot here if you are ahead, and if you're ahead at this point, the risks of him out-drawing you seem pretty minor when compared to the rewards.

-TW
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Postby Gregor » Fri Mar 18, 2005 12:42 pm

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Postby Suhleafs » Fri Mar 18, 2005 2:47 pm

You hear this a lot. which is "you will either win a small pot, or lose a big one" and in this case, a big one would be for all your chips.

Push em in, take the blinds if thats all you get, then look for a better spot to double through.
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Postby Mad Genius » Fri Mar 18, 2005 3:21 pm

Check. There is absolutely no reason to push. If he has you beat he is calling you anyway. If he has any piece of the board he is betting. Your money is going in here but let him make the move first. For example, if he has 33 or KQ he might still bet after you check thinking you have nothing (since you were BB) and you'll get a chance to double up.

This belongs in the MTT forum by the way.
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Postby Acesinit » Fri Mar 18, 2005 3:55 pm

Before reading MG's post I would have said check. But he is right, so I now say check. Most likely he will bet with anything hoping to pick up the pot.
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Fri Mar 18, 2005 4:52 pm

MG,

I think I understand the check, to get him to put more money into the pot... But you would agree, barring a flush or straight coming on the table w/ the turn and river, that all of his chips should go into this pot? If he bets like another 1200, would you call or put him in then? What about if he puts you allin? Would you be scared of him having something like trips and wait for a better opportunity?

MVP
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Postby Mad Genius » Fri Mar 18, 2005 5:22 pm

Trips? Absolutely not. I might be afraid of Ax with a better kicker. However, with blinds and antes already in the pot there is really no way of finding out without putting your entire stack in. Check-folding is simply way too tight for the reasons I stated in my previous post, and check-calling is no good since any bet that you call will be completely pot-committing. If he checks back on the turn, I'd put my chips in no matter what card hits.
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Postby MVPSPORTS » Fri Mar 18, 2005 7:33 pm

Thanks... I thought so, but was just checking...
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Postby cholo loco » Sun Mar 20, 2005 8:47 pm

i ended up check raiseing all in and hated it the whole way and wasnt surprised at all when he showed me ATs and knocked me out. i dont think there was anything i could do to avoid it but as soon as i saw the flop i had the feeling i was gonna get busted and wanted to just give up but thought it was too weak tight to say the least. i think if i was in this situation again i would lead dand then fold if he raised and if he called probablly get broke on the turn but maybe shut down
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