by emmasdad » Wed Jul 11, 2007 9:31 am
I think QQ is a close case. The fact that we have QQ makes it more likely that villain doesn't have QQ, and therefore increases the chance that he has something better. I'd probably fold them. If we hold AK, it is more likely that villain has QQ than AA or KK, and I am willing to flip at this point in the tourney. Remember that this is very early in a DS tourney.
I appreciate that some models show that if XY is a shove, so is ZZ. That is a fine point to start, but the actual play does not exist in a vacuum. I have yet to see a model that deals with this specific situation (70+ BB stacks, relative shortie who may be tilting from a beat shoves 24BBs early in a tournament, one player left to act that can cripple us and holds a random hand). Link plz.