Do any of you guys play these? I'm talking about the big ones, like 1800 to 1900 players, pays out to about 220, with decent money starting around 40 players left. The final table is where the real money is, and getting there would net you a nice little payday. The trouble of course is getting there. I'm not really sure what the point of this post is, other than stating my thoughts and perhaps verbalizing my thoughts. It'll be long I'm sure.
The way I see it, there's 3 or 4 stages to these tournaments, all requiring different playing styles, and yet no matter how well I play, i continually struggle to accumulate any significant amount of chips without knocking myself out. Any advice would be welcomed.
Stage 1 - Basically the first hour, or to the first break. These tournaments tend to lose half the field by this time. It's usually not a problem getting to the break, unless I take a really bad beat. The problem is getting to the break with any amount of chips. It's not uncommon for me to hit the break having only played one or two hands out of the blinds, and often I have below 1000 chips when we resume play. When play resumes, the blinds are at 50/100, which puts me in pretty bad shape if I've only got 850 chips left. Basically I'm usually forced to move in during my first two orbits at the table, and certainly before the next blind increase.
My strategy during stage one is just to play solid solid poker, don't take coinflips, and don't lose an unnecessary amount of chips. I basically stick to a solid starting hand requirement, pairs 9's and ups, small & medium pairs in position for a limp or small raise, AK, AQ, AJ & A10s, and KQs. I'll take some flops in late position with suited connectors too if the price is right. I stand by the adage that you can't win the tournament by winning one big pot early, but you can certainly lose it. However, with the blind situation after break, it's really almost mandatory to double up at least once in stage one. The additional problem is the "Party Poker Crazies" who love to bluff, chase flushes, chase straights, and such. The majority knock themselves out, but there are casualties to the decent player. Surviving to break feels like an accomplishment, but staring up at half the field as a shortstack afterwards quickly knocks you back to reality.
Stage 2 - Is basically the next hour or so, until the blinds reach 150/300. For me, this is where the tournament tends to really start. In this stage is where I usually go out, and this stage usually thins the field down to about 400 players. Traditionally, at this point, most tables consist of one or two healthy stacks <2500, 3 or 4 decent stacks around 1800 and above, and the rest are short-stack-ish and looking to double up. The players continue to drop like flies in this round, as short stacks everywhere are pushing trying to double up. I'm almost always included in this bunch. This is the first stage where blind stealing pops its head up, but it's not quite advisable yet, as there are so many short stacks who will move in with any pair and any ace that you can quickly coinflip yourself from a healthy stack to out if you're stealing too much.
My hand requirements stay pretty much the same. I also believe in tournaments that it's not worth blinding/anteing yourself down so low that doubling up doesn't help you, like getting down to 500 chips at 200/400 blinds, and if you double up, you're still in a world of hurt and going to have to do it several more times to stay afloat. So, at about 5 times the BB I'm really hunting for any playable hand to move in. Suited connectors down to about 89 look good, as do any pairs, any ace, and any two face cards, as well as the good hands mentioned earlier. Again, the stacks at this point are the size that most PF raises are solid hands and re-stealing won't ever work, so I try to be the first one in the pot and utilize the gap concept where possible. Calling a PF raise with A-6 is almost always a recipe for disaster, no matter how short you are. Again, this is where I go out most often. I'm usually sitting by idly, folding all the junk, then I move in on a PF raiser with AQ and he has 9's and I lose. Or I move in with A-9 and get called by A-J.
Assuming I come into this level with more than 2000 chips, I try to apply smart pressure to the short stacks. I don't outright steal at this level and I try to protect my chips and stay solid, just an extension of level 1, but looking for oppurtunities to pick off a short stack making a move with a suspect hand. This also often bites me in the ass, such as when I call a short stacks all in with A-Js and then a player behind me moves in, or when I call a short stack players all in with 9's and he's got J's. No way to avoid these situations, right? This level is so tough because rarely do you have enough chips to just coast and yet one mistake cripples you and basically moves you to all in or fold mode.
Stage 3 - We'll call this bubble time. The blinds in these tourneys are tough, I think they go up every 15 minutes or so. In this stage, the blinds will probably reach 600/1200 by the time you hit the money. Even a stack of 9 or 10K isn't enough to coast, you'll make the money, but be in serious trouble right after money time. The majority of tables consist of one or two large stacks <10K, 3 or 4 medium stacks between 3 and 5K, a few medium short stacks ~2K, and a few short stacks, less than 1500. This stage is steal city. Most hands are one raise and done. Or a raise, re-raise done. If a flop is taken, it's usually taken down by the first bet put into the pot. It's easy to identify the habitual stealers, they're the ones slowly moving their stacks up, before getting caught and being unable to fold K-10 to pocket aces and getting knocked out. Re-steals are almost always monsters. Very rarely do I get to this level with any more than 3 or 4K chips, and when I do, I'm quickly blinded down to nothing. The problem at this level is blinds in relation to stack sizes. When you've only got 3000 chips, a standard raise is often to 1000 or more, which is a signifcant amount of your chips. Playing hands and getting action becomes an issue. A hand like 10's becomes a real burden. The problem is, I'd like to raise and take the blinds. If I'm called I've got so much in the pot that I'm basically committed and I have to move in on the flop regardless, which is good until you're called, which is a lock that you're beaten. Moving in PF is probably desired, but again, the big stacks often play fast and loose and will call with a wide range. Getting in as a 60% favorite seems good, until you're beaten again. Blind stealing at this level is tough too, because you'd rather not devote 1/3 of your stack to a steal, so you're basically moving in, which never feels good. Besides crossing your fingers and moving in a lot, any other suggestions? You'll note I have nothing to say on being a big stack at this level, as I have no experience playing as such.
Stage 4 - Post money. At this point, all the short stacks do their best to get out, happy with having played 5 and a half hours and winning $4.72. Just NOT going out here immediately will often move you up 2 or 3 pay spots. By this time I'm almost always extremely short stacked and just trying to hold on for a big hand, with every spot I move up a positive. The big stacks tend to be merciless at this time, and your stack is usually such a size that somebody will call you with a mediocre hand, just due to pot odds. There's probably a step 5, final table, but since I've only been there twice, I don't think I am qualified to discuss like I know anything about it
I know all tournaments are going to have a large fluctuations and consistency will be tough, especially with fields this big. Playing these is probably a huge -EV play, but I really enjoy them and have a real taste for winning another one (It's been a year now ) By my estimation from the hundreds of these that I've played, you're going to have to have a lot of things go right for you to succeed. I'd imagine that you'll be all in probably 20-30 times minimum. Of which you're going to have to win every time you're called by a bigger stack. You're going to have to play 4-5 coin flips, and win them all. You're going to have to avoid the suckouts, the flushes, the straight draws, and the under pairs hitting. You're going to have to win with AK and AQ. You're going to have to avoid any mental lapses/mistakes that you may make, as well as capitalize on any and all mistakes others do. And you're going to have to do all of this for 7 hours minimum.
When I put it that way, I'm not really sure why I play these things, it's just so daunting of a task. I mean, $8000 for first place would be dynamite, and the chance of a big payday will keep me coming back, but it really does seem like a huge waste. Anybody who's read this far, sorry I don't have any profound revelation and I doubt I taught anybody anything, other than to maybe not play these tournaments But any advice or commentary would be appreciated. Now that I got excel on my computer I can start keeping track of my results for these things. That should be interesting... Entry one is of course Monday's sterling 184th place finish and $5.91 in profit. Unfortunately, entry two is yesterday's 1392 -$22 finish
Drade