Okay - so here's one of the hands from Level IV. This is still during the rebuy period, but I think it has two distinct possibilities to look at. Here's the hand.
I have 12080. TT on the button. UTG+1, MP limp, MP2 raises to 300, I call. BB raises to 2000 (he has 13895 to start the hand). I call. Flop is 47J with 2 diamonds and he pushes. I fold.
First of all, from the preflop action, there's 4550 in the pot. When he pushes, I have 10080 left and I'd be calling to win a 14630 pot.
In terms of hands to put him on, the player has been fairly aggressive thus far, so it is tough for me to put down an ironclad thought. First of all, he could have just overcards to my hand, in which case, he might or might not have a jack to have a better pair on the flop. He could have a pocket pair higher or lower than mine - but I suspect it is not jacks (as he probably would've played it a little slower, even with the flush draw out). He could also have a flush draw here.
Here are some examples of my possible situations:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1015794
pokenum -h ts th - ad kd -- jd 4d 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s Jd 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Th 451 45.56 539 54.44 0 0.00 0.456
Ad Kd 539 54.44 451 45.56 0 0.00 0.544
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1015796
pokenum -h ts th - ah kc -- jd 4d 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s Jd 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Th 745 75.25 245 24.75 0 0.00 0.753
Kc Ah 245 24.75 745 75.25 0 0.00 0.247
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1015800
pokenum -h ts th - 8d 9d -- jd 4d 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s Jd 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Th 600 60.61 390 39.39 0 0.00 0.606
9d 8d 390 39.39 600 60.61 0 0.00 0.394
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1015804
pokenum -h ts th - ks kc -- jd 4d 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s Jd 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Th 99 10.00 891 90.00 0 0.00 0.100
Ks Kc 891 90.00 99 10.00 0 0.00 0.900
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1015805
pokenum -h ts th - 9s 9h -- jd 4d 7s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 7s Jd 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Th 907 91.62 83 8.38 0 0.00 0.916
9s 9h 83 8.38 907 91.62 0 0.00 0.084
The biggest decision here is whether to call or not. Right now, you have 10k. If you call and lose, you can take 2 rebuys and be up to 3k. If you call and win, you will have just under 25k. In all cases, the stack size will not be enough to guarantee you make it to the money, let alone deep into it - but obviously things are much easier with a huge stack.
In terms of EV - the only situation where you are in dire straights is where the opponent has a bigger pocket pair or a Jx hand. In these cases, it would be a clear indication to fold (as you only win about 10% of the time).
However, even in the cases where you are in a +EV in terms of tournament money, I would argue very much that folding is right all of the time, unless you know he has a smaller pocket pair (or smaller unpaired cards that can't make a straight without running cards). In these cases, where you have 85% chance of winning or better, I think the call is clearly indicated. On the other extreme though, I think it is pretty likely you are either up against overcards with a flush draw (where it is 45:55 - essentially a draw) or a straight flush draw (where you are winning 60% of the time - still pretty close).
If you lose, you triple your investment in the tournament (by rebuying a 2nd and 3rd time) to put you up to 3,000 after the hand.
If you win, you have the same investment, but your stack has increased by double the starting amount.
If you fold - you have the same investment, but your stack has decreased by 1/6th. In this case, it is a guarantee. If you call, you have a chance of getting a big stack and a change of tripling your investment and having a small, but liveable stack.
Confusing enough yet? I know I am all over the place, but these are the kinds of decisions that I sometimes have trouble with.
Opinions? Should I not even call the preflop raise? I don't think that's reasonable.
/d