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No sets in 1200 hands. - Live Poker Forums

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No sets in 1200 hands.

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No sets in 1200 hands.

Postby AlexMR » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:42 pm

What are the odds of not hitting a set in 1300 hands if you are playing all the pocket pairs you are dealt. ?? That is for Holdem. Assume you are dealt the avg. amount of pocket pairs.

Cant get away from this losing streak.!!!


Hope someone reads this section.


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Postby Suhleafs » Fri Aug 19, 2005 12:19 am

I've no formal education in math but let's give it a shot

You are dealt a pocket pair 1 in 16 hands.

So you should have been dealt 81 pocket pairs (rounded down from 81.25)

Of those 81 pocket pairs you should have flopped a set about 10.83--- times,, lets round this up to 11.

But to answer your question, where does one really start to try and answer that? I'm not too sure where to proceed from here.....
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Postby laynegt » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:22 am

sweet, these are kinda fun :wink:

probability of hitting a set w/ a pp on any given hand, assuming you always play:
p(set) = 1/17 * 1/8.5

therefore the probability of not hitting a set on any given hand:
p(no set) = 1 - p(set)

the prob of not hitting a set in n hands:
p(no set over n hands) = p(no set)^n

so, % to hit no sets over n hands:
10 - 93.3%
50 - 70.7%
100 - 49.9%
500 - 3.1%
1000 0.10%
1300 0.012%, or 1 in 8,332
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Postby iceman5 » Fri Aug 19, 2005 7:08 pm

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Postby MTPaid » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:02 pm

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Postby AZAce » Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:20 pm

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