So this one happened tonight, I wonder what you make of it?

$200 PLO, I have more or less a $200 stack having sat down for about two orbits and not played much.

Dealt K[c] Q[c] Q[s] J[s] on the button. I am planning to raise it if it comes to me limped, but the UTG calls, UTG+1 raises to $7.50, UTG+2 calls and it folds to me. I call and we end up seeing the flop 4 handed. All players have stacks similar to mine except UTG who has about $100. I don't have much of a read except that the PF raiser is quite aggressive.

Flop brings K[d] T[c] 2[c], which looks a decent one for me (top pair queen kicker is fairly immaterial at this point, though could be handy against a no-pair draw, I have 2nd nut flush draw and an open ender in the best position). It's checked to me so I bet the pot, $34 or so. UTG folds, UTG+1 (preflop raiser) and UTG+2 both call more or less instantly. UTG+2 is a new player (I know this site well and haven't seen him before) though I haven't seen him play many hands, could suggest he is new/inexperienced/a gambler as many players at this site tend to be, but by that same token he could be decent as well.

Turn brings 6[h], a complete brick. Pot is now about $140. UTG+1 checks again, UTG+2 suddenly wakes up and bets the pot. We both have $10 or so left after the pot bet. UTG has a similar amount.

So, what do you do here? I'll tell you later what I did; in retrospect I think I made the right move without the "correct" reasoning at the time.

Monk
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I really feel like you're looking at a set here, which reduces you to clubs that aren't pairing the board, aces and jacks. Which I figure to be 14 outs, but I'm pretty drunk so I'm not sure. Getting 2-1 odds, I think you're almost exactly 2-1 against making you're hand, so if this guy will pay you off even a dollar on a river that helps you, I think you make this call.

Well, I had a feeling UTG+1 was either on a draw or very weak; I guess it was possible he had the nut flush draw in which case I was in a fair bit of trouble if he came along. However, I'm thinking this is a big bet and he's folding most hands here. I have the open ender plus the 2nd nut flush draw, and my pair.

What really made me surprised was this guy's stop-go play - surely if he had a set he'd have pushed it on the flop, rather than making this wierd free-card-then-push play? So I thought that was highly unlikely (and if he DID have a set I'm not in such bad shape to call with my outs). Most likely, it seemed to me, he had a drawing hand or he'd just found a second pair to go with a king and some sort of draw on the flop. It basically baffled me, I realised if ALL my outs were clean then I had just about even money odds to make the play, with a bit of cash behind me. I thought it was just (JUST) possible he was making a play and my kings might just be good, which maybe sways it gently into +EV territory. However, I hadn't really considered the other player (and the possibility that if both players come along, i could be in very bad shape vs a set and a nut flush draw, with some of my straight outs potentially covered; worst case scenario I might only have 5 or 6 outs, though that seemed unlikely). Well, in the end the timer was running out, and I couldn't really make up my mind but decided to take the plunge and push it in (call plus my last 10 bucks, as I wouldn't be able to fold that on any given river).

I should've realised (and kind of did) his play made a set unlikely, and if he DID have one it was probably not kings, opening up my 2 queens as possible outs. If he'd hit his second pair my 3 jacks might be outs too, which would help make up for the fact he might have some of my outs in his hand. However, this turn is SUCH a blank that there's really a very good chance he's making a typical newbie/gambler type play and just pushing a total semi-bluff. If there's even a 10-20% chance that my kings are ahead it can sway the EV crucial %s in my favour, possibly by quite a long way. It turned out he had nothing bu QJ9 for the mini-wrap and when the river brought a 7 my bare pair of kings won me a $440 pot! In this spot I just had a "feeling" based on the action that UTG+1 wouldn't call off his stack, and IF he did there was still a sidepot to fight over even if UTG+1 had some of my outs covered. So I think I made (marginally) the right decision. I was sure glad to win a big pot with next to nothing, when he tabled his cards! That chance he had nothing but a draw against me proved vital to giving me a big +EV call - although I'm about evens to play if he has a set, he's in really bad shape holding a hand that includes the same straight draw as me with no pair and no flush features, so in the event I was massive favourite on the turn. I did consider folding though, and the end it was probably more of an "I can't believe he can possibly have any more than 2 pair" rather than a fully reasoned train of thought that made me call!

Monk
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