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another middle set fiasco

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another middle set fiasco

Postby Hofstra » Tue Apr 12, 2005 9:33 am

$50 PLO on UB. I have a stack of over $70, get [Qh][Td][Th][9s] on the button and I limp after a couple of others.

Flop: [Kh][Tc][6h].

MP (Stack $40) bets $2 into the pot. I've played with him a lot and he usually underbets the pot to build a pot when he has a decent draw, or when he has a medium strong hand like top two. LP (stack $100) calls. I want to know if my middle set is good so I raise to $10. Both call. Now I'm pretty certain that MP is on a draw. I haven't played with LP before, but in the 30 mins that he has been at the table he hasn't done anything unusual.

Turn: [4c].
Looks like a good card for me; both check to me. I decided here to bet big to punish them for drawing; the only hand I'm behind of is KK, but I couldn't imagine that someone would not raise the flop with such a draw-heavy board. So I bet $40. MP folds (which surprises me, since he is getting the same odds on a call as on the flop), but LP moves all in. It's about $20 to call for a $120 in the pot.

Suddenly it looks very likely that he has KK now but that he decided to wait for a safe turn card. The only other hand he could possibly want to get all the money in with would be a huge draw. But then it wouldn't make sense for him to raise, since I would probably call the $20 on the river anyway.

If MP indeed had the nut flush draw then my heart outs (7 or so left) are probably good. With a bit of luck my gutshot is good too, so I made a crying call here.

River was no help, and opponent indeed had KKxx (no redraws).

This is the second time this week that I walk into this trap with my eyes open. First I thought that it was plain stupidity to slowplay top set on a board like that. If the board is harmless and I am certain I have my opponent drawing to only a few outs, then I might slowplay the flop if the pot is very small and the stacks are big.

Is there something to say for this play? Taking a risk on the flop in order to get someone's entire stack if a safe card comes on the turn? Of course you have to fold if one of the draws hit. But in this case my opponent had a choice between winning a $30 pot on the flop without any risk or (counting about half of the cards as safe) a 50/50 chance of winning my entire stack.

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Postby starstealer » Tue Apr 12, 2005 9:48 am

Well, this ends up being the exact opposite situation as Rhound has - so I might suggest looking there from the other point of view. I actually gave him the possibility of "slowplaying" the top set because of the draw heavy board. In fact, much of my advice to him, would apply here.

/d
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Tue Apr 12, 2005 11:39 am

I think you played it fine.

If he re-raises on the flop, and the other player folds out (making it heads up), you should definitely set yourself all in or call all in because of your back up draws (gutshot and flush) and because you never know if he might have bottom set, or something like top two with a straight draw.

Personally, I don't like giving free cards with top set on the flop so I just don't like his play. I raise here in his spot because you might fold a hand exactly like yours (a gutshot/ flush draw type situation) making it more likely that not ALL the draw cards will kill you on the turn. If he holds the top set and makes you fold by raising, if you have any sort of equity in the pot (even a crappy straight draw) it's mathematically not a bad result for him. If you want to put money in on such a draw, it's also a good EV move for him. I just think when the stacks are so shallow there's no need to pussyfoot around, and getting the money in early is the best move. If you give a free card, a flush hits the turn and someone bets the pot, you have to fold - that would really suck. So, in summary, there's not a lot of spots where I'd slowplay or take a cheap check with the top set in PLO.

You played it fine IMO, your thinking seems to have merit on each street and I lose my stack in exactly the same way as you.

Monk
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