$50 PLO on UB. I have a stack of over $70, get [Td][Th][9s] on the button and I limp after a couple of others.
Flop: [Tc][6h].
MP (Stack $40) bets $2 into the pot. I've played with him a lot and he usually underbets the pot to build a pot when he has a decent draw, or when he has a medium strong hand like top two. LP (stack $100) calls. I want to know if my middle set is good so I raise to $10. Both call. Now I'm pretty certain that MP is on a draw. I haven't played with LP before, but in the 30 mins that he has been at the table he hasn't done anything unusual.
Turn: .
Looks like a good card for me; both check to me. I decided here to bet big to punish them for drawing; the only hand I'm behind of is KK, but I couldn't imagine that someone would not raise the flop with such a draw-heavy board. So I bet $40. MP folds (which surprises me, since he is getting the same odds on a call as on the flop), but LP moves all in. It's about $20 to call for a $120 in the pot.
Suddenly it looks very likely that he has KK now but that he decided to wait for a safe turn card. The only other hand he could possibly want to get all the money in with would be a huge draw. But then it wouldn't make sense for him to raise, since I would probably call the $20 on the river anyway.
If MP indeed had the nut flush draw then my heart outs (7 or so left) are probably good. With a bit of luck my gutshot is good too, so I made a crying call here.
River was no help, and opponent indeed had KKxx (no redraws).
This is the second time this week that I walk into this trap with my eyes open. First I thought that it was plain stupidity to slowplay top set on a board like that. If the board is harmless and I am certain I have my opponent drawing to only a few outs, then I might slowplay the flop if the pot is very small and the stacks are big.
Is there something to say for this play? Taking a risk on the flop in order to get someone's entire stack if a safe card comes on the turn? Of course you have to fold if one of the draws hit. But in this case my opponent had a choice between winning a $30 pot on the flop without any risk or (counting about half of the cards as safe) a 50/50 chance of winning my entire stack.
Pieter