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do I gotta fold this?

Postby JSBC » Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:29 am

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: t5970
UTG+1: t3530
MP1: t14785
MP2: t4490
MP3: t8270
CO: t5560
Hero: t5590
SB: t7660
BB: t6850

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with :[Ac] :[7c] :[7s] :[Ah]
UTG calls t30 (pot was t45), 2 folds, MP2 calls t30 (pot was t75), MP3 calls t30 (pot was t105), CO calls t30 (pot was t135), Hero calls t30 (pot was t165), SB calls t15 (pot was t195), BB checks.

Flop: :[7d] :j[Jc] :q[Qc] (t210, 7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets t90, CO raises to t480, Hero calls t480 (pot was t780), 4 folds, MP3 calls t390 (pot was t1260).

Turn: :[5h] (t1650, 3 players)
MP3 checks, CO bets t1650, Hero calls t1650 (pot was t3300), MP3 calls t1650 (pot was t4950).

River: :[4h] (t6600, 3 players)
MP3 checks, CO is all-in t3400
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:48 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby JSBC » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:01 pm

The other line I was thinking of, was pushing the flop to 12-1400 and folding to a push.

You like that line as well?
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Fri Jul 28, 2006 3:11 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby AT » Sat Jul 29, 2006 10:49 am

I'm probably getting my stack in on the turn and seeing what happens from there.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Sat Jul 29, 2006 11:31 am

I think that's close to the worst option actually. No reason to push anyone off a weaker flush draw or top two, and no real reason to get it in with a probable 7-10 outer given that CO probably has a big set. Also, if CO does have a big set (which I'd say is 80% likely here given the action, assuming a non-retard read on him; bare in mind hero holds nut flush draw so the chances he's raising with a big draw like TQKA with a flush are greatly reduced) there's no reason to push the other guy out of the hand as he's basically dead money to your draw (i,e. if you hit there's no way MP3 can draw out on your nut flush/quads, though it's vaguely possible he has KT9 I guess and thus is blocking your two top set outs).
The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby JSBC » Sat Jul 29, 2006 4:06 pm

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