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Horrible River Card - Live Poker Forums

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Horrible River Card

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Horrible River Card

Postby briachek » Wed Feb 08, 2006 12:33 pm

Paradise Poker Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.25 BB (10 handed)

Hero ($52.00)
BB ($16.50)
UTG ($28.50)
UTG+1 ($47.75)
UTG+2 ($48.50)
MP1 ($39.25)
MP2 ($125.00)
MP3 ($17.00)
CO ($27.00)
Button ($62.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with [As], [2s], [6h], [Ah]. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button calls $0.50, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($3) [5d], [Qh], [Ad] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets $1, Button calls $1, Hero raises to $7, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $6, Button folds.

Turn: ($18) [2h] (2 players)
Hero bets $18, MP2 calls $18.

River: ($54) [3d] (2 players)
Hero bets $10

Final Pot: $64

Another hand where i was completely lost on the river. That is a horrible river and I have $25 left and decided to bet $10 as I don't think he could raise without the flush and just maybe get him to lay down a straight. If he raises, i have to fold my set. I didn't like the check to induce a bluff because could i really call all in for $25 on this board?
Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby Ojingo » Wed Feb 08, 2006 5:26 pm

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Postby briachek » Wed Feb 08, 2006 7:14 pm

Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Wed Feb 08, 2006 7:21 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby briachek » Wed Feb 08, 2006 7:34 pm

Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby Ojingo » Thu Feb 09, 2006 11:36 am

In his position I'd probably not be in the hand with anything that is behind trip aces on the river. But since he played the hand in such a way that it is very likely that he got his flush on the river, I think he has to raise you regardless of his cards, because many players have the policy of not paying off flush chasers, so that a bluff would probably be +EV for him.

About Monk's point that if he has a lower set he will pay you an extra $10: that presupposes that he doesn't bluff-raise you anyway. He has to put you on a set, and he has to know that the perfect scare card hit. I'm sure I'd raise with any cards there...
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Thu Feb 09, 2006 1:03 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby k3nt » Thu Feb 09, 2006 1:28 pm

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Postby Felonius_Monk » Thu Feb 09, 2006 1:36 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby briachek » Thu Feb 09, 2006 2:01 pm

Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby Ojingo » Thu Feb 09, 2006 4:19 pm

Again, the only possible way for me to be in the opponent's situation on the river would be when I had a flush draw plus something extra, so the question of what I'd do on the river is quite hypothetical since I'd have the flush.

But assuming that Brian's opponent asked me to play the river for him and I'd find some random garbage such as two pair. Then I'm almost positive that I'm beat (with middle set I'd have a chance I guess). Therefore, there is only one way to win the hand and that is to represent the flush. Surely, I'm going to get called most of the time. But you'd be surprised how often people decide not to pay off the chaser, especially thinking players, who think they are making a tough but necessary fold. Also, because your bluff is only a small % of the pot, a thinking player will think it highly unlikely that you would try to bluff without any serious ammo.

I've won enough huge pots on the river with very small bets (say, less than 10% of the pot) in situations like these, and it has become almost a standard play, unless I read my opponent as unbluffable or if I have a bluffing image.

Here's the thing about the $10 bet. The only hand he would possible flat call with (IMO) is a lower set. If you know he has that, then this is probably the best play, although I find it hard to believe that he will call $10 with that but fold for $25.
All other hands will raise you, for the above reasons. There is simply no point of being in that hand until the river and then not trying to take that huge pot.
We sort of agreed that a check-fold was a reasonable idea for the river, since you lose about 80% of times, and since it will be $25 into a $115 pot. Now betting $10 artificially creates odds to call a $15 raise.
A $10 bet would be fine if you had $60 left, because then you can safely fold to a big raise.

The only exception I can think of is when you know your opponent to chase small flushes. In that case a blocker might give you a cheap showdown.
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Postby briachek » Thu Feb 09, 2006 4:27 pm

so what do you think this guy had to chase all the way and then fold to my $10 bet on the river?
Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby Ojingo » Thu Feb 09, 2006 6:17 pm

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Postby Felonius_Monk » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:58 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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