nut flush with a river board pair

[GooperMC]

***** Hand History for Game 3278433054 *****
$25 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Thursday, December 29, 00:41:30 EDT 2005
Table Table 65322 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: msilve3466 ( $16.01 )
Seat 3: AAcesHighA ( $62.18 )
Seat 4: SGROCK ( $18.23 )
Seat 6: ciandj ( $86.16 )
Seat 7: dslugs ( $13.28 )
Seat 8: ginapoker ( $41.74 )
Seat 9: IAmABuggyBot ( $25.25 )
Seat 10: ernfl ( $0 )
Seat 2: Xtlilxochitl ( $29.65 )
Seat 5: Haleyesno ( $35.93 )
IAmABuggyBot posts small blind [$0.10].
msilve3466 posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to IAmABuggyBot [ Ks 3c 7s 2d ]
Xtlilxochitl folds.
>You have options at Table 65857 Table!.
ernfl has left the table.
AAcesHighA folds.
SGROCK folds.
Haleyesno folds.
ciandj calls [$0.25].
dslugs calls [$0.25].
ginapoker calls [$0.25].
BLACKJACK MASTERS!
*** TOP 21 PLAYERS! ***
Win a $5,800 cruise package!
Dec 23, 2005 to Jan 12, 2006
IAmABuggyBot calls [$0.15].
msilve3466 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, Ts, As ]
$1.5 MILLION SCRATCHCARD PROMO!
Win up to $100, a laptop, a digital camera, DVD and MP3 players! From now until January 01, 2006!
IAmABuggyBot checks.
msilve3466 checks.
ciandj checks.
dslugs bets [$0.25].
ginapoker folds.
>You have options at Table 68492 Table!.
IAmABuggyBot calls [$0.25].
>You have options at Table 68492 Table!.
msilve3466 folds.
ciandj calls [$0.25].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qs ]
>You have options at Table 65857 Table!.
IAmABuggyBot bets [$1.90].
ciandj folds.
dslugs calls [$1.90].
** Dealing River ** [ Js ]
IAmABuggyBot checks.
dslugs bets [$5.55].
>You have options at Table 68515 Table!.
IAmABuggyBot ?????

opponent was very loose and moderately agressive. It sure looks like a set, Is he making this play with something less then a boat 1:3?

[TomG]

I would let out another tirade of profanity and then fold. I look at it this way, against a set you have at least 75% equity on the turn. Clearly, it's a mistake for him to call your pot-sized bet. But if you're willing to call a pot bet on the river every time the board pairs it's no longer a mistake for him to call on the turn because of the implied odds you're offering on the river. So don't be too upset when you fold in these situations. It's only through you folding the river that you make his turn call a mistake. If he didn't fill-up on the river and is making a play at you, well kudos to him. He made a nice play, and your opponents are entitled to make some nice plays against you occasionally. It's necessary to fold the winning hand sometimes to play the game in an overall winning manner. Does anyone disagree?

As an aside, I'm wondering, for these kinds of situations, is there a general consensus on the inflection point in the size of villain's bet that we start calling his river bets?

Edit: Does anyone consider a blocking bet on the river of ~ 1/2 the pot? Against an aggressive player, I tend to avoid blocking bets since they are less effective.

[JDLush]

TG, I will *usually* throw something out there in the neighborhood of half the pot in this situation. As you said, against a very aggro player, or if I have notes that says the player is a calling station and will chase 2pr or a set on a flush board, I'll just check/fold/curse.