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open ended straight flush draw

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open ended straight flush draw

Postby briachek » Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:31 pm

maybe i'm just pissed because i would have won.

***** Hand History for Game 2569046753 *****
0/0 Omaha Game Table (PL) - Sat Aug 20 19:59:35 EDT 2005
Table Table 36964 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: El_Huevo ( $40.25)
Seat 2: FireFox_ ( $24.95)
Seat 3: MrsToben ( $22.75)
Seat 5: riverat111 ( $18.90)
Seat 6: markm3451 ( $7.90)
Seat 8: CHUK9 ( $18.40)
Seat 9: hard6workin ( $36.80)
Seat 10: briachek1 ( $26.85)
briachek1 posts small blind (0.10)
El_Huevo posts big blind (0.25)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to briachek1 [ Tc, Jc, Qh, Qd ]
FireFox_ folds.
MrsToben folds.
riverat111 calls (0.25)
markm3451 calls (0.25)
CHUK9 folds.
hard6workin folds.
briachek1 calls (0.15)
El_Huevo checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9c, 6s, 8c ]
briachek1 checks.
El_Huevo bets (1)
riverat111 folds.
markm3451 raises (4) to 4
briachek1 folds.
El_Huevo raises (12) to 13
markm3451 calls (3.65)
markm3451 is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kc ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Js ]
Creating Main Pot with $15.50 with markm3451
** Summary **
Main Pot: $15.50 | Side Pot 1: $5.35 | Rake: $0.80
Board: [ 9c 6s 8c Kc Js ]
El_Huevo balance $32.35, bet $13.25, collected $5.35, lost -$7.90 [ Jh 8h 7s 8d ] [ three of a kind, eights -- Kc,Js,8h,8d,8c ]
markm3451 balance $15.50, bet $7.90, collected $15.50, net +$7.60 [ 7d 5s 7h Th ] [ a straight, seven to jack -- Js,Th,9c,8c,7d ]

i just knew not to call the first bet as it was gonna get out of control. is just going along with this just asking for trouble as my flush draw may not be good? too many people will just push the nut straight like this to possibly give me a cause to call.
Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Fri Sep 02, 2005 5:53 am

Yeah, it's a tough one to play out of position. That said, you do have a fair number of outs, and quite a few more if the flush is good. Given that it can't go TOO crazy on the flop because one player has a short stack, I think I'd be tempted to try to get to the turn at least - the main problem is that it's possibly going to cost you half your stack to get there and then pot odds kind of make you see the river regardless, so you could end up all-in here very quickly if you play on. I think it's pretty close, to be honest. One can only assume the guy with a set of 8s was a bit of a goon, though, so perhaps that swings things towards making the call?

Having just checked the poker odds calculator, I was surprised to see that you had a pretty impressive 38% equity against Huevo even if he held the nut straight plus nut flush draw! If your flush draw is good you're favourite against a bare straight and about even money if there's a straight and a set out there. Given that your absolute worst-case scenario seems to be that you're maybe 35% equity or so, with a chance of being money favourite, and with some relatively dead money in there from the short stack guy, I think that suggests you made an error in folding at this point. However, out of position and with a non-nut draw to the flush I can understand your fold there. I may have done the same in a bigger money game, as it would be very unlikely for Huevo (if he's a typical player) to play so aggressively with a bare straight in a $200 buyin and thus I'd assume there was a decent chance he had the straight with a higher flush draw and thus I was in bad shape with a shot at losing quite a lot of money on the hand. Against a (possibly) fishy player at 25PLO I think the chances he has a set or a bare straight go way up and you should call.

In position I think it would be a much easier call to make.

Monk
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