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Overpair, Gutty+NFD against flop CR $25 PLO 6 max discussion - Live Poker Forums

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Overpair, Gutty+NFD against flop CR $25 PLO 6 max discussion

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Overpair, Gutty+NFD against flop CR $25 PLO 6 max discussion

Postby Pok 7's » Wed Jun 20, 2007 10:09 pm

A hand more for discussion here. Not a ton of hands on Villian, only 76 and he's 53/5.25/1.09. My question(s) here are how attached to this hand should we be?

I ran some scenarios and I'll put them below:

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.25 BB (6 handed) from (Format: Bet The Pot)

MP ($42.15)
CO ($11.65)
Hero ($45.80)
SB ($21.20)
BB ($14.45)
UTG ($15.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with [As], [Js], [Ac], [7h].
UTG calls $0.25, MP calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50, UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50.

Flop: ($3.85) [Ts], [5s], [9d] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero bets $3.7, BB raises to $13.7, UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($31.25) [8h] (2 players)

River: ($31.25) [3s] (2 players)

Final Pot: $31.25

Results in white below:
BB has Ks Tc 4s 5h (flush, king high).

Outcome: Hero wins $31.25.


1. I gave villian a set of 2 red tens with a suited king, and a dangler...(I gave him a 2s)
I'm a 40% dog

2. I gave him a wrap [Th] [Jc] [Qh] [8c] and I'm a 60% favorite

3. If I give him the same wrap but take away a few of my outs... [Th] [Jd] [Qs] [8s] I'm slightly better than a coin toss.

4. Same applies to his actual holding, I'm a bit better than a coin toss here

So in a shorthanded game I'm assuming this situation isn't the worst position to be in HU if someone decides to shove. However let's say 3 way... I'm gathering the set is about 50% for the most part correct? If my hand remains the same and player 3 has some type of straight draw as well. So this is pretty much a clear fold 3 handed.

So overall I'm assuming here (and I'm counting on you guys to critique my analysis) that this is for the most part not a horrible situation to be involed in HU and getting in with this kind of scenario isn't really a huge mistake but well probably add some variance to your game.

This post is kind of taking a slightly different direction somehow, because I seem to be answering my own questions....But anyway I've spent this much time on it so, is there anything else I shold factor in here? Stack sizes, position, etc.?
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Postby Wolf » Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:37 am

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Postby Stoneburg » Thu Jun 21, 2007 2:59 am

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Postby DaFish » Thu Jun 21, 2007 8:55 am

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Postby Ojingo » Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:44 am

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Postby briachek » Thu Jun 21, 2007 5:27 pm

Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby Felonius_Monk » Thu Jun 21, 2007 6:53 pm

The Monkman J[c]

"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993
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Postby Pok 7's » Thu Jun 21, 2007 8:37 pm

I ran it on two dimes last night... Although I forget exactly what combo I had (perhaps I entered something incorrectly also), but IIRC it had (approx). Set at 50% and me and whatever I entered at that point as both being 25% a piece. But I might have entered incorrectly... I just ran this as basically 3 big hands shoving here (worst case scenario I'm guessing)

Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Ts 9s 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Js Ac 7h 204 30.63 462 69.37 0 0.00 0.306
2c Td Kh Th 296 44.44 364 54.65 6 0.90 0.449
Qs Jc 8c Kd 160 24.02 500 75.08 6 0.90 0.245

Maybe it was something like this I entered last night varying the wrap a bit and putting that K back in the deck we get this:

Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Ts 9s 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Js Ac 7h 182 27.33 478 71.77 6 0.90 0.278
2c Td Kh Th 310 46.55 356 53.45 0 0.00 0.465
Qs Jc 8c Ah 168 25.23 492 73.87 6 0.90 0.257

Interesting... not a major difference but If I give the set 2 janky sidecards it switches to this:

Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Ts 9s 5d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Js Ac 7h 187 28.08 470 70.57 9 1.35 0.288
2c Td Th 5h 278 41.74 388 58.26 0 0.00 0.417
Qs Jc 8c Ah 192 28.83 465 69.82 9 1.35 0.295
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Postby pokerzen » Fri Jun 22, 2007 6:42 am

<Big_Leon> start with the RAZZ tourney?
<pokerzen1> when did the razz tourney start?
<Big_Leon> starts in 2 minutes
<Big_Leon> just drew seats
<pokerzen1> too late then
<pokerzen1> damn damn damn
<Big_Leon> no, it's not too late gogogogogo
<pokerzen1> what's the tourney number?
<Big_Leon> 55852225
<Big_Leon> password is - irunbad i think
<Big_Leon> irunbad
<pokerzen1> made it :)
<pokerzen1> okay now how do you play razz?
<Big_Leon> i have no idea
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Postby Ojingo » Fri Jun 22, 2007 8:34 am

The calculations for your equity in a 3way pot are a bit more subtle here because there will be a large sidepot, which you will play HU and will never be in very bad shape.

Anyway, even if MP would come over the top it could easily mean he has top two, bottom set or some decent draw which he prefers to play HU against the BB. It's also very possible that they have a lot of eachothers outs, improving your odds.

In short, even if you would make a mistake because it happens to be a worst-case scenario, it's not a big mistake. Overall you figure to be in decent to good shape here both HU and 3-way.
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