by Felonius_Monk » Sun Feb 20, 2005 3:56 pm
Well, that is indeed a tough one Martin. I think betting the flop is OK; it is a bit of a leap of faith to expect one of the players who called a reasonable sized raise to have a 4 (though not entirely out of the question) and so chances are your hand is good. If you're only going to bet a flop when another A hits then you're probably being a bit too tight, and this is the sort of flop that can be good for AA. I agree with you also that after the two checks it seems less likely that either has a 4.
You could've re-raised preflop (and indeed I think I would've here) - my golden rule is usually to re-raise with AA hands only when I can get a VERY significant portion of my opponent's stack in the middle; usually 2/3 or so. In this case the raiser had E70 left after his raise and you can make a raise of something close to another E50, so I think that shuts down the other two players most likely and gets you heads up with the aggressive player. If the UTG+1 player also comes along for the ride, well it's hard luck but you still have position on him and a better hand. It's hard to see the button staying in for a raise of this size. I don't like re-raising AA in most circumstances but this seems a spot where you have position and a chance to isolate a shortish stack who is raising on variable hands, so I probably would have. If you DON'T make the re-raise I really think you have to bet the flop anyway, though, because as I mentioned it's tough to put any of these players on a 4 and this hand is too good to check. A smaller bet may disguise your hand pretty well because it's hard to put you on a passively played AA here; you may get just as much respect for a E30 bet as a E50 one, but to be honest I still think betting the pot is the better option.
If the loose guy can raise more than E20 I would tempted to fold, perhaps E50 or something but as it is you're getting paid 8.5-1 and obviously you can easily make that call for E20.
I guess the operation was a success but the patient died. That's poker.
Monk
xxxxx
The Monkman J[c]
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