by Aisthesis » Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:17 am
I'm in BB with AcAs5h4c and $450. 2 limpers plus SB, and I make it $10 to go (max).
Player to my left is the same guy whose AA I cracked with my AJT9, and he obviously wants it back. He's also seen me raise max on a lot of non-AA hands (including the AJT9, of course, which he certainly remembers). He calls ($210 or so stack), as does everyone else. So, the flop is seen 4-way.
I like this flop pretty well, too: 862r with one club. So, I'm double gutted with my overpair.
I decide to bet this one out. I feel like I'm probably ahead, and I'm double-gutted. I also have outs against 2 pair. Well, LAG to my left raises max here. I take the full time to think about this one and finally fold it.
Here's my thinking: While he can have a pretty wide range here and I'm not in horrible shape just against 2 pair, what I'm most afraid of is 2 pair with a bigger straight draw (like 6789 or 5678), also 8875 is not at all good for my hand (I'd have four 3s plus three 7s still as outs, plus 2 aces, so that would make 9?? and then runner-runner flush, but I take away none of his boating outs). Anyhow, while I guess I have my 9 outs against most of these (the bigger wraps being the worst, I would guess), he always has outs to counterfeit me on my straight.
I'm pretty sure I'm behind here whatever he has, but I just can't quite see being even 2:1 underdog against his range. The very BEST scenario for me would be a hand like JT86, I would think, in which case I'm presumably better than 2:1 but probably still something of a dog (maybe 1.4:1 or so). So, that's what I was thinking in my decision to fold.
Another option here is to check-call, which might not be such a bad play on this board. I'd like to see a club for sure. But if I do that (probably having to fold OOP if I'm going up against more than 1 player?), then I'm also going to have to be prepared to play my non-nut straight with a 7 for $200.
So, I can see pros and cons to check-calling. The other two players in the hand are also pretty loose, so I am also in danger of giving a free card to someone hoping to spike 2 pair.
As an aside to all this: Raising max with a bunch of wrap-type hands and then primarily AA, I feel like I'm laying down a lot more AA hands than wraps, which I do lay down at times, but they seem to be getting me into more situations where I have a really good hand that I can play for stack than the AA hands do. AA is currently showing a profit, but not nearly as big as the wrap hands.