The gallery of villains:
#1 Random Fish with ~75bb
#2 Regular Bad LAG with ~90bb
#3 Maniac muppet on Tilt with ~35bb
#4 Loose/Passive fish with ~40bb

And of course Hero, sitting pretty at ~160bb after quintupling up a few hands ago.


My hand: [Qc][Qh][7d]

Random Fish limps UTG, as usual, Regular Bad LAG limps behind and yours truly decides to limp as well. Next it's Maniac Muppet on Tilt who raises the max to 6.5bb. Loose/Passive fish in the BB calls, as does UTG. When it gets back to Regular Bad LAG he says "I'm gonna call just because he's on tilt", and calls. I think for a while... and raise the max to ~40bb.

Ok ok ok...

Let's look at some information:
- Maniac muppet could literally have ANY two here. He's normally pretty much a maniac and now he has just lost almost his whole stack and is on tilt.
- The loose/passive fishes don't have any premium hands and both have short stacks anyway
- Now the regular Bad LAG... he DEFINETELY doesn't have a premium hand because he just turned down TWO chances to raise, AND he made a little speech where he basically told us he knows his hand belongs in the muck.

So I am thinking...
1. I know I am way ahead of the raiser
2. Bad LAG is the only one of the opponents who has any sort of stack, and he just revealed his hand is crap, and he MUST know I am a tight and good player (compared to the others) because I've played with him a LOT. So I should have fold equity.
3. Fishes probably has some junky hands like A4xx or rundown hands, but I would prefer to get them out and play HU against the Maniac Muppet on Tilt.

I figure my raise will...

1. Obviously be called by the tilting Muppet, which I don't mind.
2. Possibly force out the Bad LAG and one or both of the Fishes creating a big chunk of dead money (if they all fold my pot odds will be huge)
3. Worst case get money in with what is probably the best hand right now, although extremely vulnerable and hard to play post flop, thus committing me and making post flop decisions easier




So... after hearing my arguments, is it still stupid or is it just marginal?

What do you do if Bad LAG decides to come over the top and play for stacks?

at some point your obsession with big preflop plays in plo8 will wane -- you are almost never "way ahead" pf with a "marginal holding".

the money is made POST FLOP. if you like playing plo8 roulette, then this kind of play is fine. i think you probably have less fold equity than you think you do, and your hand equity against villain's range is not going to be that impressive.

Still.. it is the only way I make money! Post flop consists of putting all my money in and getting half back minus rake. Once in a blue moon I will quarter someone, and once and even more rarely scoop obviously.

I did think I was more like 60/40 over a random hand though.

PFR had JJT7r so I was actually a 75/25 favorite. Flop came KJx with my FD, I pushed out the others and won the big side pot. And of course I tilted the table...