I have been wondering about outs odds on the flop. We are always told to figure the odds/outs on the flop and double them with the two cards to come, but if the card that comes on the turn is not the out card then should we refigure with one card to come? Why would it not be more correct to figure the odds/outs based on only the one turn card if we will be correct to fold on a missed out? In other words: How can we count on seeing the river if we don't call? Should we always call if that is how we figure the odds?

If anyone ever comes out with a Omaha Tracker Program like Poker tracker or Poker office, I will be the first in line to pay $100 + for it!!!

I was a little tired when I wrote this and the last question should be: Should we call if no scare cards come on the turn if this is how we figure the odds?

Hi.

I'm still confused, but let me try it.

About the odds: If you want to know the chance of making your hand by river, than calculate the following formulas:

if you're on the flop: Outs/45 + Outs/44 = probability that you hit your hand by the river.
if you're on the turn: Outs/44 = probability that you hit your hand by the river.

BUT in PLO most people are always betting the pot, so you're getting 2-to-1 pot odds. You see that odd calculation doesn't work that well in pot limit games. Looking at the implied odds you have to gamble more in PLO than in other poker games, that means calling a pot-sized bet with an 13 outs straight draw is usually correct.

For more detailed information look for the articles of the Legendary Felonius Monk (look at the BTP main page).


LJ

Ooops, I forgot the question:

YES, if no scare card comes, you're still drawing to the nuts and you're getting pot odds, YOU SHOULD CALL!!!


LJ

Thank you Monkman for your answer and all your help! You have improved my game and this is quickly becoming the best PLO spot on the web. I think I understand now and have found a mistake I was making and probably causing a slow drain on my BR.

In the outs charts for Omaha you will see:

Outs---- 2 cards-------- 1 card
1............ 4.4% .............. 2.3%
2.............8.8%................4.5%
3............ 13.0%............. 6.8%
4.............17.2%............ 9.1%
ect.........

If you use the 2 card number on the flop to figure your pot odds this is a mistake because you are not always going to see river. I am still confused though as to what the correct figure would be? I would guess you need to figure the % of times you would actually see the river and use that to calculate the real chances to hit your out! Does anyone have the hard figures for this? I guess this should have been in the Odds section but all I ever play now is PLO so it seemed natural to put it here.

Simple enough really - use the 2 card number if it's all in, or if you KNOW you're calling the turn ( just make sure you use the figure for ALL your money going in, not just the turn call). otherwise, use the 1 card number BUT realise that you CAN call (and indeed in PLO, sometimes MUST call to get the best value) when you don't quite have pott odds, because implied odds play a big part in this game.

EXACT figures are always hard to come by, because the outs you require may or may not be in your opponent's hand, and often you're drawing to a hand where you're not 100% sure that all your outs will be clean, but with experience you'll be able to use your knowledge of the rough figures combined with your "feel" for the game and what your opponent(s) may have and do, and you'll find yourself making more right decisions than wrong ones.

The more you think about the game, quite simply, the better you'll become and the easier and more clear it'll seem to make the right decisions consistently. Each time you make a call, or consider a PLO situation, have a good think about all the variables and characteristics of what's going on, perhaps in retrospect, and basically try to train your mind to get round the various aspects of the game and the advantages and disadvantages of each course of action. You'll find this will improve your game immeasurably, as will posting and discussing it with other people, and reading as much as you can. There's no substitute for a bit of thought though, IMO!

Hope this helps!

Monk
xxxxx