Party Poker (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with , , , .
2 callers, I raise, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls

Flop: , , (5 players)
Check, check, player to my right (villain) bets, I raise, SB folds, BB calls, fold, fold, villain calls.

Turn: (3 players)
BB checks, villain bets, I call.

River: (3 players)
BB checks, villain bets, I fold, BB folds.

Here is my play by play:

Pre-flop:
I had two total rocks sitting to my left (one had a VP$IP of 9 and the other was 13) and the SB and BB were both very loose. I figured that the two players to my left were most likely going to fold even if I limped and the SB / BB were going to call regardless of what I did. In that situation I might as well raise because it puts more money in the pot and it probably ends up with the same amount of players in the pot.

Flop:
I don’t think that my As are going to hold up unless I can get a bunch of people out of this pot. Am I overvaluing TP here? I just feel like a call resigns my hand to a low draw only and I was hoping that a raise would clear out some of the riff raff.

Turn:
Bad turn but I still have odds to call with just my low draw.

River:
Damn. Click fold and curse (I do that a lot playing O8)

I am very interested in what you guys think of the flop raise but other comments are welcome.

I don't raise there all the time, goop, but I will every once in a while to change things up. You won't get someone with 2 pair to fold, but you may fold a better kicked ace.

So it sounds like I am overvaluing my TP there. You guys raise there if your 7 is a Q?

I though that the player in front of me was betting the flush draw (which he was) so I was hoping to get HU with him which obviously didn't work.

That flop is a no-brainer for me.... Easy raise every time. It's costing you one bet to potentially hugely improve your odds on half the pot. One small bet, and you can really squeeze the players after you. I think raising is much better than calling here. SB and BB seem liable to call to draw at marginal values for one bet, but by squeezing them out you're greatly improving your chances in this pot, and it only costs you one bet! Also, if BB and SB are really THAT loose, they might call to chase a weaker low, or put money into the high end and swell the low pot that you may be the only competitor for. I can't see how you can have less than 1/3 of the equity three handed in this spot, so why not raise? If you can get it heads up, you have control of the hand and me be able to drive bluff, with the added protection of a pair for high and a nut low draw.

I know I am an aggressive O8 player but I still think the advantages of raising here far outway the cost of one measley small bet.

Monk
xxxxx

I guess that it really comes down to how much PE for the top half do you think I get by raising (not counting the free card play I can pull off if I want)

Lets do a little math. The pot is 11SB with me to act with 4 players
left to act behind me.

If I raise and get 2 callers, everyone calls the turn, and 1 player
calls the river the final pot will be 13BB and I will have put in 3BB.

Lets say I call (instead of raise) and get 1 more caller on the flop
and 1 more callers on the turn then the final pot will be the same but
I will have put in 2.5BB.

Probabilities:
- 75%ish of the time there will be a low so value of the low half will be 13 / 2 *.75 = 4.9.
- The value of the top 1/2 will be 13 / 2 * .75 + 13 * .25 = 8.1.
- If there is a low out I will have it 2:3 and 1:3 I will not.

For the raise let R be the % I win the high:
EV = 8.1H + (.66)(4.9) – 3 = 8.1R + .25

For the call let C be the % I win the high:
EV = 8.1H + (.66)(4.9) – 2.5 = 8.1C +.75

That means if 8.1R + .25 = 8.1C + .75 then I will break even with my raise. That will happened whenever 8.1(R – C) = .5 or R – C = .0617

If I have done everything right that a raise would have to win my chance of winning the high by 6% for the raise to be +EV. (It also means that I have a job that allows me to do these calculations instead of doing real work but that a topic for another post).

Does pushing that 1 player out of the pot give me 6% more PE? Add in the fact that a raise puts me in control of the hand, give me the opportunity to get a free card on the turn, gives me good info on what my opponents are playing, and may push more the 1 players out of the pot and I think that the raise is a play that I will continue to make.