$25 PLO8 at Party. This is a strange board. I value bet the river hoping to draw in a weaker boat, but I get check-raised instead. I only get beat by quads (4x or KK). Do you call? Why or why not?


$25 PL Omaha Hi/Lo

Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 4: jtown63 ( $8.08 )
Seat 2: Hero ( $74.62 )
Seat 9: Buffalo69 ( $66.97 )
Seat 5: Villain ( $24.45 )
Seat 3: chessmen ( $41.82 )
Seat 10: willydd ( $21 )
Seat 1: pattaman ( $31.86 )
Seat 6: prepaidl ( $14.65 )
Seat 8: glmi6910 ( $10.02 )
Seat 7: ADD0194 ( $24.50 )
chessmen posts small blind [$0.10].
Villain posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ah, 3s, 8d, Ac ]
prepaidl calls [$0.25].
ADD0194 folds.
glmi6910 calls [$0.25].
Buffalo69 calls [$0.25].
willydd folds.
pattaman calls [$0.25].
Hero raises [$1.85].
chessmen folds.
Villain calls [$1.60].
prepaidl calls [$1.60].
glmi6910 folds.
Buffalo69 folds.
pattaman calls [$1.60].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kh, 4d, 4c ]
Villain checks.
prepaidl checks.
pattaman checks.
Hero checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kc ]
Villain bets [$2].
prepaidl folds.
pattaman calls [$2].
Hero calls [$2].
** Dealing River ** [ 4h ]
Villain checks.
pattaman checks.
Hero bets [$5].
Villain is all-In. (Note: This is for a $15.60 raise.)
pattaman folds.

Hero ??????

[Edited to add note.]

I hate these boards. To be honest, I will normally do the weak thing and check behind on the river as any card in omaha can be in any hand especially at the 25 level. I would probably fold as it takes a special type of muppet to raise all in without the 4 or KK there.

Gooper... Call? Fold?

I think the river is a fold, however I would have been much more aggressive in the rest of the hand which would have made your opponents define their hands better and made this river decision more clear cut.

Pre-flop:
Good raise.

Flop:
I would make a continuation bet here. If your opponents are playing random cards then there is around a 45% chance that someone had the 4, and around a 5% chance someone has KK. Since you raised pre-flop the probability of both goes down some (how much depends on the opponents). You have:
- 2 outs for the boat
- A backdoor low draw
- Better then 50% fold equity.
- Position
Combine all of those together and I think a continuation bet is +EV.

A continuation bet also will also
- Give you a free turn if you want if (if there is a low card)
- Clean up your backdoor low draw. No naked A2 can call that bet
- Give you a ton of info. After that bet you will know with some degree of accuracy what all of your opponents are playing.

Turn:
If you potted the flop and someone called this is an easy check fold. Even with the check on the flop I still think this is fold. Lets look at your EV.

Pot is $10 and you have to call $2 so you are getting 5:1. You have
- 2 clean outs with AA
- 2 possibly clean outs with a K
- 2 possibly clean outs with a 4
At best you have 6 outs and 1 card to see so for this call to be +EV you need 6.3:1 pot odds. That would mean on average when you hit your would have to have someone call a $2 river bet which I think is reasonable. However you really don’t know those K’s and 4’s are clean outs and if you only count the AA outs you would basically have to stack someone for that call to be EV. I think a call here is marginal so I would lean toward folding. I only like to enter marginal situations if I am the aggressor or I have a good read (which isn't very often at the PL25 tables).

River:
I don’t hate the bet here as much as everyone else does because PL25 players will call value bets on the river with middle pocket pairs here. I probably wouldn’t do it because you still have no idea what your opponents are playing that this looks like a prime CR card for someone with KK or a 4. Also with the action on previous streets I don’t think that a middle PP would still be in this hand.

As many times as I have seen someone call a bet with a middle pocket pair here (and even bet sometimes) I have never seen someone raise. When you do get raised ask yourself what hands will raise that you beat? QQ? With villains turn bet and this CR unless I had a good read on him I would fold.

Ok, so I was a bit deceptive here. Actually, I was the "Villain" and the "Hero" (henceforth "Antihero") was a LAG that was running over the table.

I only had 61 hands for the LAG in PTO, but it showed a really high VP$IP (over 50%) and about 15-20% PF raise. During this session, I saw that he bet out almost every flop, and often folded (when not having the nuts) when someone bet back at him. He also played quickly -- that is, his calls, bets, folds, and raises were always done quickly.

I had 2h Qs Kd As... not bad for a BB. I decided to check on the flop as the Antihero almost ALWAYS raised an unraised pot in late position. I wanted to see the turn before I put a large part of my stack in. Strangely, he checked.

When the K hit the turn, I decided to try to take the pot then. I was hoping that he would raise, but he just called. Maybe this would have been a good time to check-raise.

At first, I was pissed off when I saw the river card, but then I saw a bluff opportunity. Antihero was taking a LONG time to make his decisions, so I put him on a good-but-not-best hand. I thought I could check-raise to represent the 4.

He bet at me, I raised pot, and he called. I thought that this was a stupid call on his part, but....

** Dealing River ** [ 4h ]
Kuso checks.
pattaman checks.
Antihero bets [$5].
Kuso is all-In.
pattaman folds.
Antihero calls [$15.60].
Antihero shows [ Ah, 3s, 8d, Ac ] a full house, Fours full of aces.
Kuso doesn't show [ 2h, Qs, Kd, As ] three of a kind, kings.
Antihero wins $52.45 from the main pot with a full house, Fours full of aces.
There was no qualifying low hand.

Anyway, of the three losing hands that I posted from this session, this is the only one that I like and might attempt again -- I think that it was a class bluff. That being said, I think that this just goes to show that there are plenty of people who _will_ pay off the nuts, so conservative nut-peddling has its rewards.

Comments?

Also, briachek, I'll wear the muppet badge with pride.